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Sha Tin · 2020-11-01

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SOARING TOWER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/2, with PEGASUS GLORY second and REWARDING TOGETHER third. The 4.6 favourite GALACTIC finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SOARING TOWER 1.08.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 7 5.0 1-1/2
2 1 PEGASUS GLORY K C Leung · K H Ting 9 4.7 1-1/2
3 6 REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT1 C Y Ho · F C Lor 1 7.1 1-3/4
4 3 GALACTIC A Badel · A T Millard 3 4.6 2-1/4
5 7 RUN RUN GOOD CP1 C Schofield · K L Man 6 35.0 3-1/2
6 2 MONKEY JEWELLERY B1 J Moreira · J Size 11 10.0 3-3/4
7 12 VICTORIOUS LEADER V1 M F Poon · C H Yip 12 32.0 5-1/4
8 4 AMAZING ROCKY H K Teetan · T P Yung 2 4.6 5-1/4
9 5 RED MAJESTY B Shinn · D A Hayes 4 118.0 5-1/2
10 9 DRAGON IN FIELD N Callan · P F Yiu 5 80.0 7-1/4
11 11 WINNING GENGHIS H/SR H T Mo · Y S Tsui 10 202.0 7-3/4
12 10 FORTUNE MASTER T Piccone · K W Lui 8 20.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOARING TOWER2. PEGASUS GLORY+1.5L3. REWARDING TOGETHER+1.75L4. GALACTIC+2.25L5. RUN RUN GOOD+3.5L6. MONKEY JEWELLERY+3.75L7. VICTORIOUS LEADER+5.25L8. AMAZING ROCKY+5.25L9. RED MAJESTY+5.5L10. DRAGON IN FIELD+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick AMAZING ROCKY (33.5%) finished 8th — the winner SOARING TOWER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 AMAZING ROCKY 33.5% 2.99 8
2 1 PEGASUS GLORY 17.6% 5.70 2
3 3 GALACTIC 11.3% 8.83 4
4 8 SOARING TOWER 8.9% 11.23 1
5 6 REWARDING TOGETHER 7.9% 12.73 3
6 2 MONKEY JEWELLERY 7.1% 14.06 6
7 7 RUN RUN GOOD 5.8% 17.34 5
8 10 FORTUNE MASTER 4.6% 21.73 12
9 12 VICTORIOUS LEADER 1.9% 52.87 7
10 5 RED MAJESTY 0.6% 159.39 9
11 9 DRAGON IN FIELD 0.5% 197.82 10
12 11 WINNING GENGHIS 0.4% 244.21 11
AMAZING ROCKYPEGASUS GLORYGALACTICSOARING TOWER — wonREWARDING TOGETHERMONKEY JEWELLERYRUN RUN GOODFORTUNE MASTERVICTORIOUS LEADERRED MAJESTYDRAGON IN FIELDWINNING GENGHIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 50.5

PLACE

1 17.5

6 22.5

8 18.5

QUINELLA

1,8 124.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 55.5

1,8 54.5

6,8 64.5

FORECAST

8,1 388

TIERCE

8,1,6 1,442

TRIO

1,6,8 234

FIRST 4

1,3,6,8 264

QUARTET

8,1,6,3 6,705

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 30

A2

A1

4TH DOUBLE

12/1 107

12/8 901.5