Happy Valley · 2020-11-25
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-25 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ROYAL RACER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 3-1/4, with REGENCY MASTER second and FEARLESS FIRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | ROYAL RACER Closed strongly V 1.39.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 2.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 9 | 3.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 5 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | KING DRAGON Closed strongly V/XB N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 11 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | THUNDER STOMP Led early K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly CP-/H/B2/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 8 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | PRETTY CUTE Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 174.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | BIG BANG BONG TT T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 1 | 14.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | KIRAM C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 4 | 43.0 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | HAPPY ICHIBAN B M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 2 | 13.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | ALLOY STAR B H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 3 | 193.0 | 20-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | ROYAL RACER | 31.1% | 3.21 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | REGENCY MASTER | 26.4% | 3.79 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | KING DRAGON | 10.2% | 9.78 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | ALL YOU KNOW | 9.3% | 10.74 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | FEARLESS FIRE | 8.2% | 12.12 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | HAPPY ICHIBAN | 4.9% | 20.21 | 10 |
| 7 | 3 | KIRAM | 3.1% | 31.93 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | THUNDER STOMP | 2.7% | 37.17 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | BIG BANG BONG | 2.4% | 40.87 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | ALLOY STAR | 1.0% | 103.53 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | PRETTY CUTE | 0.5% | 184.40 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 27.5
PLACE
1 15
4 13
5 13
8 13.5
QUINELLA
1,8 52
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 25
1,5 25
1,8 22.5
4,5 62.5
4,8 21
5,8 23
FORECAST
8,1 102
TIERCE
8,1,4 275
8,1,5 304
TRIO
1,4,8 50
1,5,8 62
FIRST 4
1,4,5,8 162
QUARTET
8,1,4,5 1,328
8,1,5,4 1,327
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,8/1,4,8 520
1,3,8/1,5,8 522
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A3 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
3/1 12.5
3/8 93.5
TRIPLE TRIO
3,7,8/1,3,8/1,4,8 60,698
3,7,8/1,3,8/1,5,8 80,488
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,7,8/1,3,8/Any Combination 1,213