Happy Valley · 2020-11-25
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-25 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HOLY HEART, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with ANGEL OF MY EYES second and EASY GO EASY WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite THE ROCK finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HOLY HEART Closed strongly PC/TT 1.39.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 1 | 3.4 | N |
| 2 | 10 | ANGEL OF MY EYES Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 10 | 8.6 | N |
| 3 | 3 | EASY GO EASY WIN Closed strongly V/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 9 | 43.0 | N |
| 4 | 12 | RICH AND LUCKY Led early XB H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 17.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | SURREALISM B B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 4 | 46.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | FLYING SWORD Closed strongly CP/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 11 | 39.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE C Wong · D J Hall | C Wong | D J Hall | 3 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | THE ROCK Closed strongly H J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 3.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | LEAP OF FAITH V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 7 | 6.9 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | CHATER PINS XB1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 2 | 105.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT B A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 12 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | TOYCOON XB/H1 T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 5 | 12.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | THE ROCK | 25.1% | 3.99 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | HOLY HEART | 24.1% | 4.15 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 10.0% | 9.98 | 7 |
| 4 | 10 | ANGEL OF MY EYES | 8.5% | 11.76 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | RICH AND LUCKY | 6.4% | 15.62 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | FLYING SWORD | 5.5% | 18.27 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | TOYCOON | 4.9% | 20.23 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 4.4% | 22.85 | 11 |
| 9 | 3 | EASY GO EASY WIN | 4.3% | 23.28 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | LEAP OF FAITH | 4.1% | 24.60 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | SURREALISM | 2.3% | 44.01 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | CHATER PINS | 0.5% | 205.89 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 34.5
PLACE
1 15
3 98.5
10 27
QUINELLA
1,10 158.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 198.5
1,10 56
3,10 487
FORECAST
1,10 313
TIERCE
1,10,3 8,363
TRIO
1,3,10 2,332
FIRST 4
1,3,10,12 6,294
QUARTET
1,10,3,12 90,543
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 16.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,6/1,3,10 525,838
7TH DOUBLE
4/1 271
4/10 120
SIX UP
7,9/3,8/1,3/1,8/1,4/1,10 255
9/8/3/8/4/1 16,877
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
8/4/1 1,191
8/4/10 391