跑馬地 · 2020-11-25
第 8場
2020-11-25跑馬地第8場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K W Lui訓練的HOLY HEART勝出，贏出N。ANGEL OF MY EYES獲得亞軍；EASY GO EASY WIN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門THE ROCK跑獲第8名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HOLY HEART 後段發力 PC/TT 1.39.62 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 1 | 3.4 | N |
| 2 | 10 | ANGEL OF MY EYES 後段發力 TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 10 | 8.6 | N |
| 3 | 3 | EASY GO EASY WIN 後段發力 V/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 9 | 43.0 | N |
| 4 | 12 | RICH AND LUCKY 早段領放 XB H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 17.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | SURREALISM B B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 4 | 46.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | FLYING SWORD 後段發力 CP/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 11 | 39.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE C Wong · D J Hall | C Wong | D J Hall | 3 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | THE ROCK 後段發力 H J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 3.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | LEAP OF FAITH V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 7 | 6.9 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | CHATER PINS XB1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 2 | 105.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT B A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 12 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | TOYCOON XB/H1 T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 5 | 12.0 | 8 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | THE ROCK | 25.1% | 3.99 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | HOLY HEART | 24.1% | 4.15 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 10.0% | 9.98 | 7 |
| 4 | 10 | ANGEL OF MY EYES | 8.5% | 11.76 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | RICH AND LUCKY | 6.4% | 15.62 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | FLYING SWORD | 5.5% | 18.27 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | TOYCOON | 4.9% | 20.23 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 4.4% | 22.85 | 11 |
| 9 | 3 | EASY GO EASY WIN | 4.3% | 23.28 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | LEAP OF FAITH | 4.1% | 24.60 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | SURREALISM | 2.3% | 44.01 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | CHATER PINS | 0.5% | 205.89 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 34.5
PLACE
1 15
3 98.5
10 27
QUINELLA
1,10 158.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 198.5
1,10 56
3,10 487
FORECAST
1,10 313
TIERCE
1,10,3 8,363
TRIO
1,3,10 2,332
FIRST 4
1,3,10,12 6,294
QUARTET
1,10,3,12 90,543
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 16.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,6/1,3,10 525,838
7TH DOUBLE
4/1 271
4/10 120
SIX UP
7,9/3,8/1,3/1,8/1,4/1,10 255
9/8/3/8/4/1 16,877
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
8/4/1 1,191
8/4/10 391