Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2020-11-25

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. REWARDING TOGETHER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with A SMILE LIKE YOURS second and MOMENTUM GALAXY third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT 1.09.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 2 2.1 SH
2 7 A SMILE LIKE YOURS C Schofield · J Size 6 77.0 SH
3 5 MOMENTUM GALAXY B N Callan · K H Ting 3 13.0 1
4 6 HONEST WAY CP/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 8 23.0 1
5 12 WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT K C Leung · L Ho 12 11.0 1-1/2
6 8 BRANDING POWER A Badel · K W Lui 11 85.0 1-3/4
7 4 MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT C L Chau · W Y So 10 15.0 1-3/4
8 3 LORIZ V Borges · P F Yiu 9 7.5 2-1/4
9 11 HAPPY JAI JAI XB/TT H W Lai · D A Hayes 1 83.0 2-1/2
10 2 PRANCE DRAGON B/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 7 9.2 2-1/2
11 1 HERCULES B/XB/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 4 6.7 4-1/4
12 10 SUNDAY BETTING B1 M Chadwick · C Fownes 5 25.0 4-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REWARDING TOGETHER2. A SMILE LIKE YOURS+0.1L3. MOMENTUM GALAXY+1L4. HONEST WAY+1L5. WOOD ON FIRE+1.5L6. BRANDING POWER+1.75L7. MASTER ALBERT+1.75L8. LORIZ+2.25L9. HAPPY JAI JAI+2.5L10. PRANCE DRAGON+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick REWARDING TOGETHER (50.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 REWARDING TOGETHER 50.4% 1.98 1
2 1 HERCULES 10.5% 9.49 11
3 2 PRANCE DRAGON 6.1% 16.37 10
4 7 A SMILE LIKE YOURS 5.0% 20.20 2
5 4 MASTER ALBERT 4.8% 20.83 7
6 10 SUNDAY BETTING 4.7% 21.13 12
7 5 MOMENTUM GALAXY 4.5% 22.33 3
8 3 LORIZ 4.2% 23.88 8
9 12 WOOD ON FIRE 3.2% 31.01 5
10 6 HONEST WAY 3.2% 31.45 4
11 8 BRANDING POWER 2.6% 38.73 6
12 11 HAPPY JAI JAI 0.8% 122.72 9
REWARDING TOGETHER — wonHERCULESPRANCE DRAGONA SMILE LIKE YOURSMASTER ALBERTSUNDAY BETTINGMOMENTUM GALAXYLORIZWOOD ON FIREHONEST WAYBRANDING POWERHAPPY JAI JAI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 21

PLACE

5 36

7 145.5

9 11

QUINELLA

7,9 625.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 1,088.5

5,9 46.5

7,9 207

FORECAST

9,7 687

TIERCE

9,7,5 8,404

TRIO

5,7,9 2,262

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 9,146

QUARTET

9,7,5,6 107,672

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/7 415

1/9 110.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 16