Happy Valley · 2020-12-02

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course A 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-02 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. DYNAMIC EAGLE, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with ABOVE second and PRETTY BAUHINIA third. The winner led throughout. The 3.7 favourite ABOVE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.17.26

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	DYNAMIC EAGLE Wire to wire 2.17.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	1	123 lb	4.4	1/2
2	2	ABOVE Closed strongly B C Schofield · A T Millard	C Schofield	A T Millard	4	132 lb	3.7	1/2
3	9	PRETTY BAUHINIA Closed strongly B2/TT2 K Teetan · Y S Tsui	K Teetan	Y S Tsui	9	114 lb	8.4	4-3/4
4	1	METHANE C L Chau · D E Ferraris	C L Chau	D E Ferraris	2	126 lb	4.2	4-3/4
5	7	KUNGFUMASTER PANDA B/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan	K C Leung	P O'Sullivan	5	117 lb	5.6	5-1/2
6	4	MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris	N Callan	D E Ferraris	7	129 lb	41.0	6
7	8	HAY RUN XB V Borges · L Ho	V Borges	L Ho	3	114 lb	10.0	7-1/2
8	5	BULLISH GLORY H T Piccone · C W Chang	T Piccone	C W Chang	8	125 lb	37.0	20-3/4
9	3	CHUNG WAH SPIRIT J Moreira · C H Yip	J Moreira	C H Yip	6	130 lb	22.0	29-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick METHANE (25.5%) finished 4th — the winner DYNAMIC EAGLE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	METHANE	25.5%	3.93	4	4.2
2	3	CHUNG WAH SPIRIT	24.9%	4.01	9	22.0
3	6	DYNAMIC EAGLE	14.1%	7.08	1	4.4
4	7	KUNGFUMASTER PANDA	9.3%	10.76	5	5.6
5	8	HAY RUN	8.8%	11.31	7	10.0
6	2	ABOVE	8.1%	12.28	2	3.7
7	9	PRETTY BAUHINIA	5.8%	17.32	3	8.4
8	4	MAGNETISM	2.2%	44.98	6	41.0
9	5	BULLISH GLORY	1.2%	81.31	8	37.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 44

PLACE

2 14.5

6 15

9 28

QUINELLA

2,6 79

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 32

2,9 67

6,9 57.5

FORECAST

6,2 203

TIERCE

6,2,9 1,086

TRIO

2,6,9 213

FIRST 4

1,2,6,9 188

QUARTET

6,2,9,1 5,495

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 16.5

A1 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 2200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99