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Happy Valley · 2020-12-02

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-02 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KINDA COOL, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with GOOD SHOT second and SIMPLY FLUKE third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 KINDA COOL B1 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 1 2.2 1
2 6 GOOD SHOT XB C Schofield · D J Hall 6 14.0 1
3 3 SIMPLY FLUKE CP/H/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 14.0 3-1/2
4 9 MANAGEMENT SUPREME C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 8.5 4-1/4
5 5 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK B K C Leung · W Y So 5 4.3 7-1/2
6 2 SPRINT FORWARD CP/TT K H Chan · D A Hayes 8 18.0 7-1/2
7 12 ALLOY KING CP1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 12 186.0 10-1/4
8 11 SUNNY SMILE B/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris 7 397.0 12
9 7 PAKISTAN ZINDABAD B1/TT1 A Hamelin · A S Cruz 3 24.0 12-1/4
10 4 FOCUS V Borges · P F Yiu 9 85.0 13-1/2
11 8 SPICY SO GOOD TT1 A Badel · C S Shum 4 11.0 14-1/2
12 10 TOP MILITARY B K Teetan · T P Yung 2 15.0 20

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KINDA COOL2. GOOD SHOT+1L3. SIMPLY FLUKE+3.5L4. MANAGEMENT SUPREME+4.25L5. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK+7.5L6. SPRINT FORWARD+7.5L7. ALLOY KING+10.25L8. SUNNY SMILE+12L9. PAKISTAN ZINDABAD+12.25L10. FOCUS+13.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KINDA COOL (30.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 KINDA COOL 30.9% 3.24 1
2 5 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 11.9% 8.37 5
3 9 MANAGEMENT SUPREME 11.0% 9.12 4
4 2 SPRINT FORWARD 9.0% 11.14 6
5 6 GOOD SHOT 8.8% 11.39 2
6 10 TOP MILITARY 7.6% 13.09 12
7 3 SIMPLY FLUKE 7.2% 13.89 3
8 7 PAKISTAN ZINDABAD 5.3% 18.78 9
9 8 SPICY SO GOOD 5.0% 20.16 11
10 4 FOCUS 1.9% 51.55 10
11 12 ALLOY KING 1.0% 101.91 7
12 11 SUNNY SMILE 0.4% 240.66 8
KINDA COOL — wonGOODLUCK GOODLUCKMANAGEMENT SUPREMESPRINT FORWARDGOOD SHOTTOP MILITARYSIMPLY FLUKEPAKISTAN ZINDABADSPICY SO GOODFOCUSALLOY KINGSUNNY SMILE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 22

PLACE

1 12.5

3 26.5

6 33

QUINELLA

1,6 150.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 43

1,6 58.5

3,6 164

FORECAST

1,6 195

TIERCE

1,6,3 1,027

TRIO

1,3,6 343

FIRST 4

1,3,6,9 411

QUARTET

1,6,3,9 5,155

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A3

A2

4TH DOUBLE

6/1 196

6/6 216.5