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Happy Valley · 2020-12-02

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.50.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WONDER WIN Closed strongly 1.50.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho 6 12.0 SH
2 0 SOCKET ELITE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C H Yip 1 7.2 SH
3 0 GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT A Badel · D E Ferraris 10 11.0 1/2
4 0 TREASURE CHEST Led early B/XB V Borges · P F Yiu 4 2.2 1-1/4
5 0 EVEN KEEL Closed strongly B/XB B Shinn · A T Millard 7 17.0 2-1/2
6 0 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B/H T Piccone · C W Chang 9 16.0 3-3/4
7 0 YOU HAVE MY WORD Closed strongly B C Schofield · T P Yung 5 9.0 3-3/4
8 0 STAR WIN Closed strongly CP2 J Moreira · D J Whyte 12 53.0 4-1/2
9 0 JOLLY FOREVER TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 14.0 4-3/4
10 0 SALTO OLIMPICO B N Callan · D J Hall 8 13.0 4-3/4
11 0 PRESIDENT STAR CP/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 11 18.0 6
12 0 ROCKET HAMMER B H W Lai · K H Ting 2 218.0 9-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-02 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. WONDER WIN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by SH, with SOCKET ELITE second and GO BALLISTIC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite TREASURE CHEST finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER WIN—2. SOCKET ELITE+0.1L3. GO BALLISTIC+0.5L4. TREASURE CHEST+1.25L5. EVEN KEEL+2.5L6. THE JOY OF GIVING+3.75L7. YOU HAVE MY WORD+3.75L8. STAR WIN+4.5L9. JOLLY FOREVER+4.75L10. SALTO OLIMPICO+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick TREASURE CHEST (23.2%) finished 4th — the winner WONDER WIN was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TREASURE CHEST 23.2% 4.30 4
2 0 JOLLY FOREVER 16.9% 5.91 9
3 0 SOCKET ELITE 13.1% 7.63 2
4 0 YOU HAVE MY WORD 11.5% 8.70 7
5 0 EVEN KEEL 7.1% 14.08 5
6 0 STAR WIN 5.2% 19.23 8
7 0 SALTO OLIMPICO 4.9% 20.35 10
8 0 THE JOY OF GIVING 4.8% 20.72 6
9 0 PRESIDENT STAR 4.8% 21.02 11
10 0 WONDER WIN 3.7% 27.15 1
11 0 GO BALLISTIC 3.5% 28.61 3
12 0 ROCKET HAMMER 1.3% 78.27 12
TREASURE CHESTJOLLY FOREVERSOCKET ELITEYOU HAVE MY WORDEVEN KEELSTAR WINSALTO OLIMPICOTHE JOY OF GIVINGPRESIDENT STARWONDER WIN — wonGO BALLISTICROCKET HAMMER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 129.5

PLACE

2 31.5

10 24

11 33.5

QUINELLA

10,11 599

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 171.5

2,11 167.5

10,11 163

FORECAST

11,10 1,048

TIERCE

11,10,2 17,938

TRIO

2,10,11 2,616

FIRST 4

2,9,10,11 943

QUARTET

11,10,2,9 42,278

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/10 48.5

6/11 579.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 29

A1 —