Happy Valley · 2020-12-23
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-23 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MANAGEMENT SUPREME, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with GOODLUCK GOODLUCK second and HONEST WAY third. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 3.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 8 | 8.8 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | HONEST WAY CP/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 7 | 16.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 2 | 4.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 5 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | HERCULES B/XB/TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 1 | 4.1 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | ORIENTAL AMIGO B C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 4 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | WINNING STRIKES B/TT1 A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 8.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | PICHU H1/TT N Callan · K H Ting | N Callan | K H Ting | 6 | 202.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | NEW FUTURE B1/TT1 Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 12 | 20.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | AION B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 10 | 86.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | HAPPY RUBY TT1 V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 11 | 137.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 25.4% | 3.93 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | HERCULES | 17.8% | 5.63 | 6 |
| 3 | 9 | NEW FUTURE | 11.6% | 8.60 | 10 |
| 4 | 11 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME | 10.8% | 9.26 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 8.9% | 11.26 | 5 |
| 6 | 12 | WINNING STRIKES | 6.6% | 15.15 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK | 5.6% | 17.82 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 5.2% | 19.15 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | HONEST WAY | 4.5% | 21.98 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | AION | 1.8% | 56.63 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | HAPPY RUBY | 1.1% | 88.22 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | PICHU | 0.6% | 160.50 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 39
PLACE
5 25
6 35
11 14
QUINELLA
5,11 138
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 183
5,11 61
6,11 108
FORECAST
11,5 386
TIERCE
11,5,6 2,232
TRIO
5,6,11 997
FIRST 4
3,5,6,11 650
QUARTET
11,5,6,3 10,928
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/5 50
4/11 200.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 22