Happy Valley · 2020-12-23
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-23 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY GOOD GUYS, ridden by C Soumillon and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with U W BROTHER second and TRAVEL DATUK third. The 2.9 favourite UNITED WE STAND finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B 0.57.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Soumillon · P F Yiu | C Soumillon | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.6 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | U W BROTHER J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 6 | 3.3 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | TRAVEL DATUK B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 1 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | TOM'S STYLE XB1/TT N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 9 | 35.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | VIVA CHEF B M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 8 | 20.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | HAPPILY FRIENDS C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 12 | 34.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | UNITED WE STAND B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 3 | 2.9 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | AFTER ME H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 7 | 69.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | BOND A STAR TT1 C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 2 | 114.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | ARDENODE TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 10 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | WINNER'S HEART K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | SEA ELITE H1 A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 11 | 61.0 | 4-3/4 |
| — | 0 | NEXTMODEL C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | UNITED WE STAND | 35.3% | 2.83 | 7 |
| 2 | 11 | U W BROTHER | 25.2% | 3.96 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | WINNER'S HEART | 9.8% | 10.22 | 11 |
| 4 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 7.3% | 13.78 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | TRAVEL DATUK | 6.6% | 15.23 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | ARDENODE | 3.8% | 26.06 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | SEA ELITE | 3.7% | 26.79 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 3.1% | 32.77 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | VIVA CHEF | 2.2% | 45.27 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | TOM'S STYLE | 1.6% | 61.23 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | AFTER ME | 1.0% | 104.88 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | BOND A STAR | 0.5% | 219.54 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 56
PLACE
1 17
10 24.5
11 14
QUINELLA
1,11 105.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 62
1,11 39
10,11 67.5
FORECAST
1,11 226
TIERCE
1,11,10 1,250
TRIO
1,10,11 256
FIRST 4
1,3,10,11 1,907
QUARTET
1,11,10,3 25,966
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 19
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
11/1 211
11/11 40