Happy Valley · 2020-12-23
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly XB1/TT- 1.40.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 4.5 | NOSE |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY HOUR Closed strongly E/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 7 | 8.6 | NOSE |
| 3 | 0 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND Led early TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 8 | 4.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 11 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | NITRO EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT C Soumillon · D E Ferraris | C Soumillon | D E Ferraris | 10 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | PRETTY BAUHINIA B/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 1 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | SHINEALOT Closed strongly C Schofield · P O'Sullivan | C Schofield | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 32.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | BRAVERY AND POWER Closed strongly TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 9 | 27.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | JOY N FUN LEGEND CP/TT H W Lai · T P Yung | H W Lai | T P Yung | 2 | 81.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | KEEP WINNING TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 4 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | WONDER BRAHMA H- M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 3 | 4.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | WINNERS BROTHER V A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 6 | 29.0 | 12-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-12-23 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. PERFECT TO PLAY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by NOSE, with HAPPY HOUR second and CALIFORNIA LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.5 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | VIRTUS STAR | 26.6% | 3.76 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 16.9% | 5.93 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | WONDER BRAHMA | 8.4% | 11.87 | 11 |
| 4 | 0 | NITRO EXPRESS | 7.5% | 13.36 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 6.5% | 15.27 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 6.4% | 15.67 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | SHINEALOT | 6.3% | 15.97 | 7 |
| 8 | 0 | HAPPY HOUR | 6.3% | 15.98 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | KEEP WINNING | 5.2% | 19.36 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | WINNERS BROTHER | 4.5% | 22.35 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | BRAVERY AND POWER | 4.0% | 24.72 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | JOY N FUN LEGEND | 1.5% | 66.13 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 45
PLACE
1 16
3 18
8 32
QUINELLA
1,8 249
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 46.5
1,8 84
3,8 88.5
FORECAST
1,8 330
TIERCE
1,8,3 1,662
TRIO
1,3,8 262
FIRST 4
1,3,4,8 380
QUARTET
1,8,3,4 7,777
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 23.5
A2 —