跑馬地 · 2020-12-23
第 1場
2020-12-23跑馬地第1場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的PERFECT TO PLAY勝出，贏出NOSE。HAPPY HOUR獲得亞軍；CALIFORNIA LEGEND獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以4.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PERFECT TO PLAY 後段發力 XB1/TT- 1.40.06 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 4.5 | NOSE |
| 2 | 8 | HAPPY HOUR 後段發力 E/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 7 | 8.6 | NOSE |
| 3 | 3 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND 早段領放 TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 8 | 4.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | VIRTUS STAR 後段發力 TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 11 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | NITRO EXPRESS 後段發力 B/TT C Soumillon · D E Ferraris | C Soumillon | D E Ferraris | 10 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | PRETTY BAUHINIA B/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 1 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SHINEALOT 後段發力 C Schofield · P O'Sullivan | C Schofield | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 32.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | BRAVERY AND POWER 後段發力 TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 9 | 27.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | JOY N FUN LEGEND CP/TT H W Lai · T P Yung | H W Lai | T P Yung | 2 | 81.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | KEEP WINNING TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 4 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | WONDER BRAHMA H- M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 3 | 4.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | WINNERS BROTHER V A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 6 | 29.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | VIRTUS STAR | 26.6% | 3.76 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 16.9% | 5.93 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | WONDER BRAHMA | 8.4% | 11.87 | 11 |
| 4 | 6 | NITRO EXPRESS | 7.5% | 13.36 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 6.5% | 15.27 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 6.4% | 15.67 | 1 |
| 7 | 5 | SHINEALOT | 6.3% | 15.97 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | HAPPY HOUR | 6.3% | 15.98 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | KEEP WINNING | 5.2% | 19.36 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | WINNERS BROTHER | 4.5% | 22.35 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | BRAVERY AND POWER | 4.0% | 24.72 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | JOY N FUN LEGEND | 1.5% | 66.13 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 45
PLACE
1 16
3 18
8 32
QUINELLA
1,8 249
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 46.5
1,8 84
3,8 88.5
FORECAST
1,8 330
TIERCE
1,8,3 1,662
TRIO
1,3,8 262
FIRST 4
1,3,4,8 380
QUARTET
1,8,3,4 7,777
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 23.5
A2 —