跑馬地 · 2020-12-23
第 9場
2020-12-23跑馬地第9場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由M Chadwick策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT勝出，贏出N。WILL POWER獲得亞軍；CLASSIC UNICORN獲得季軍。頭馬以4.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT 1.08.79 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 4.5 | N |
| 2 | 1 | WILL POWER XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 2 | 7.9 | N |
| 3 | 5 | CLASSIC UNICORN TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 1 | 7.7 | N |
| 4 | 2 | HONG KONG WIN B- J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 8.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | GOLDEN DASH B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 3 | 4.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS C Soumillon · C Fownes | C Soumillon | C Fownes | 6 | 7.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | GUNNISON H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 75.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | MEGA HEART XB/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 8 | 51.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | JOYFUL UNION CP V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 12 | 32.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | LARSON CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 11 | 19.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | SHINING GEM CP K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 4 | 7.8 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | RACING FIGHTER B/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 7 | 33.0 | 7-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WILL POWER | 33.6% | 2.97 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | HONG KONG WIN | 13.9% | 7.21 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 10.9% | 9.17 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 7.0% | 14.34 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | CLASSIC UNICORN | 6.5% | 15.47 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | GOLDEN DASH | 5.7% | 17.66 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | RACING FIGHTER | 5.5% | 18.04 | 12 |
| 8 | 3 | SHINING GEM | 5.1% | 19.48 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | LARSON | 4.2% | 23.84 | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | JOYFUL UNION | 4.2% | 23.99 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | MEGA HEART | 2.7% | 36.83 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | GUNNISON | 0.8% | 130.50 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 45.5
PLACE
1 26
5 27
12 19
QUINELLA
1,12 178.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 104.5
1,12 79.5
5,12 65.5
FORECAST
12,1 387
TIERCE
12,1,5 2,654
TRIO
1,5,12 400
FIRST 4
1,2,5,12 1,141
QUARTET
12,1,5,2 22,581
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 21
A3 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,10,12/1,5,12 357,077
8TH DOUBLE
10/1 52
10/12 206.5
SIX UP
1/4/3/1/10/12 67,357
1,11/3,4/3,7/1,5/10,12/1,12 7,866
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
1/10/1 546
1/10/12 2,730