跑馬地 · 2020-12-23
第 6場
2020-12-23跑馬地第6場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的GRATEFUL HEART勝出，贏出2-1/2。HARRIER JET獲得亞軍；SPARKLING DRAGON獲得季軍。1.9倍大熱門SUPER AXIOM跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT 1.08.79 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 2.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | HARRIER JET B V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | SPARKLING DRAGON TT K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 8 | 24.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | LOVING A BOOM TT C Soumillon · R Gibson | C Soumillon | R Gibson | 12 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | IMA SINGLE MAN B-/CP1/H1/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 25.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | THOU SHALL SING B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 68.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | JUST NOT LISTENING V K H Chan · T P Yung | K H Chan | T P Yung | 5 | 146.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | SUPER COMMANDER XB- B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 9 | 251.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | MORE THAN A HORSE H-/V1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 7 | 119.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | MAN STAR B1 A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 3 | 14.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | SUPER AXIOM XB C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 4 | 1.9 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | BRIGHT KID P-/B2/XB2 C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 11 | 81.0 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SUPER AXIOM | 36.6% | 2.73 | 11 |
| 2 | 3 | GRATEFUL HEART | 30.1% | 3.32 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | MAN STAR | 6.0% | 16.75 | 10 |
| 4 | 7 | HARRIER JET | 5.6% | 17.97 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | LOVING A BOOM | 5.4% | 18.68 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 3.6% | 27.44 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | THOU SHALL SING | 3.1% | 32.33 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | SPARKLING DRAGON | 2.6% | 38.10 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | JUST NOT LISTENING | 2.3% | 43.07 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 | BRIGHT KID | 2.2% | 44.59 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | MORE THAN A HORSE | 2.0% | 48.88 | 9 |
| 12 | 6 | SUPER COMMANDER | 0.4% | 228.15 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 26
PLACE
3 11
4 40.5
7 20.5
QUINELLA
3,7 123.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 74
3,7 36.5
4,7 173.5
FORECAST
3,7 211
TIERCE
3,7,4 1,485
TRIO
3,4,7 451
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 526
QUARTET
3,7,4,2 7,285
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 11
A3 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
4/3 77
4/7 71.5