Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-02-28

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course B+2 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.46.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VINCY Closed strongly XB-/SR1/TT 1.46.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · D J Whyte 9 24.0 1-3/4
2 0 LOOKING GREAT M Chadwick · F C Lor 10 14.0 1-3/4
3 0 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 4 21.0 2-3/4
4 0 ABOVE B J Moreira · A T Millard 6 4.8 3-1/4
5 0 AWE Closed strongly XB M F Poon · D A Hayes 3 5.8 3-3/4
6 0 WORLD FAMOUS Led early B/XB K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 10.0 4-1/2
7 0 ARROGANT B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 12.0 4-3/4
8 0 CHARITY FUN TT K Teetan · C S Shum 11 2.8 4-3/4
9 0 CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B V Borges · Y S Tsui 8 69.0 6-1/4
10 0 FLYING MIGHTY CP A Badel · D J Hall 1 9.1 7
11 0 LONDON HALL B R Maia · D J Hall 7 38.0 20-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-28 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. VINCY, ridden by T Piccone and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-3/4, with LOOKING GREAT second and CALIFORNIA TEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite CHARITY FUN finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VINCY—2. LOOKING GREAT+1.75L3. CALIFORNIA TEN+2.75L4. ABOVE+3.25L5. AWE+3.75L6. WORLD FAMOUS+4.5L7. ARROGANT+4.75L8. CHARITY FUN+4.75L9. CHAMPION SUPREME+6.25L10. FLYING MIGHTY+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ABOVE (23.5%) finished 4th — the winner VINCY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ABOVE 23.5% 4.26 4
2 0 CHARITY FUN 19.7% 5.08 8
3 0 LOOKING GREAT 8.1% 12.31 2
4 0 FLYING MIGHTY 7.6% 13.10 10
5 0 AWE 7.2% 13.90 5
6 0 WORLD FAMOUS 7.1% 14.15 6
7 0 CALIFORNIA TEN 7.0% 14.25 3
8 0 VINCY 6.4% 15.60 1
9 0 ARROGANT 6.4% 15.65 7
10 0 LONDON HALL 4.1% 24.14 11
11 0 CHAMPION SUPREME 2.9% 34.85 9
ABOVECHARITY FUNLOOKING GREATFLYING MIGHTYAWEWORLD FAMOUSCALIFORNIA TENVINCY — wonARROGANTLONDON HALLCHAMPION SUPREME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 246

PLACE

1 61.5

7 59.5

9 44.5

QUINELLA

7,9 1,369.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 543.5

1,9 370

7,9 362

FORECAST

7,9 2,805

TIERCE

7,9,1 37,064

TRIO

1,7,9 6,804

FIRST 4

1,7,8,9 5,879

QUARTET

7,9,1,8 168,057

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,7/1,7,9 1,420,981

3 PICK 1

A2 46

A3 —

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

4/7 1,745

4/9 170