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Sha Tin · 2021-02-28

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-28 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with BRIGHT KID second and ULTRA EXPRESS third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite GREEN ENVY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.34.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Wire to wire B 1.34.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 8 6.4 1
2 2 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · W Y So 10 11.0 1
3 7 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A T Millard 9 4.8 1-1/4
4 12 GREEN ENVY V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 3.2 2-1/4
5 5 EVER LAUGH B/TT A Badel · K L Man 6 12.0 2-1/4
6 1 TOYCOON Closed strongly H-/XB- R Maia · P F Yiu 14 22.0 3-1/4
7 9 WINNING STEED B/H K C Leung · K H Ting 3 7.2 3-1/2
8 14 PRECISION DREAM H M L Yeung · T P Yung 2 223.0 4-1/4
9 13 NOBLE MAN B/E/TT V Borges · J Size 4 33.0 6
10 6 LEGION OF MERIT B H T Mo · D J Hall 1 121.0 6-3/4
11 8 HAPPY WIN WIN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 13 22.0 7
12 11 EL VALIENTE B C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan 7 14.0 8-3/4
13 3 REGENCY MASTER TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 11 29.0 8-3/4
14 10 AION CP1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 12 221.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S2. BRIGHT KID+1L3. ULTRA EXPRESS+1.25L4. GREEN ENVY+2.25L5. EVER LAUGH+2.25L6. TOYCOON+3.25L7. WINNING STEED+3.5L8. PRECISION DREAM+4.25L9. NOBLE MAN+6L10. LEGION OF MERIT+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GREEN ENVY (31.5%) finished 4th — the winner ALL FOR ST PAUL'S was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 GREEN ENVY 31.5% 3.18 4
2 7 ULTRA EXPRESS 11.6% 8.65 3
3 9 WINNING STEED 11.2% 8.92 7
4 4 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 7.6% 13.11 1
5 2 BRIGHT KID 6.9% 14.52 2
6 13 NOBLE MAN 6.2% 16.18 9
7 8 HAPPY WIN WIN 5.9% 17.04 11
8 3 REGENCY MASTER 5.5% 18.13 13
9 5 EVER LAUGH 4.8% 20.79 5
10 11 EL VALIENTE 4.6% 21.54 12
11 1 TOYCOON 2.8% 35.58 6
12 6 LEGION OF MERIT 0.7% 138.40 10
13 10 AION 0.4% 276.74 14
14 14 PRECISION DREAM 0.3% 306.54 8
GREEN ENVYULTRA EXPRESSWINNING STEEDALL FOR ST PAUL'S — wonBRIGHT KIDNOBLE MANHAPPY WIN WINREGENCY MASTEREVER LAUGHEL VALIENTETOYCOONLEGION OF MERITAIONPRECISION DREAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 64

PLACE

2 35

4 25

7 17

QUINELLA

2,4 335

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 120.5

2,7 120

4,7 59.5

FORECAST

4,2 844

TIERCE

4,2,7 4,456

TRIO

2,4,7 678

FIRST 4

2,4,7,12 491

QUARTET

4,2,7,12 15,384

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 22.5

5TH DOUBLE

2/2 390.5

2/4 1,799.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,13/2,8,14/Any Combination 135,749