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Sha Tin · 2021-02-28

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FANTASTIC WAY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1, with DUBLIN STAR second and KEEP YOU WARM third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 FANTASTIC WAY 1.09.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 13 1.8 1
2 9 DUBLIN STAR B A Hamelin · K L Man 6 7.9 1
3 10 KEEP YOU WARM B/XB K Teetan · K W Lui 1 7.4 1-1/4
4 2 KAI XIN DRAGON H1/TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 9 28.0 1-1/2
5 11 WAR OF COURAGE B M Chadwick · K L Man 8 44.0 1-1/2
6 5 LET'S DO IT C Y Ho · D J Hall 3 141.0 1-3/4
7 7 LOYAL BABY M F Poon · F C Lor 5 95.0 2-3/4
8 6 WINE AND WINE B-/TT R Maia · T P Yung 4 84.0 3
9 3 BIG FORTUNE B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 11 13.0 3
10 14 GREEN REIGN M L Yeung · C Fownes 7 27.0 3-1/4
11 13 EXCEED THE STARS XB-/B H T Mo · C S Shum 2 229.0 5
12 4 MIGHTY VALOR Z Purton · P F Yiu 10 5.5 5-1/4
13 8 PASSING FASHION H1 H N Wong · C H Yip 12 226.0 7
14 1 ROYAL AGILITY H1/TT1 T Piccone · Y S Tsui 14 185.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC WAY2. DUBLIN STAR+1L3. KEEP YOU WARM+1.25L4. KAI XIN DRAGON+1.5L5. WAR OF COURAGE+1.5L6. LET'S DO IT+1.75L7. LOYAL BABY+2.75L8. WINE AND WINE+3L9. BIG FORTUNE+3L10. GREEN REIGN+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick FANTASTIC WAY (60.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 FANTASTIC WAY 60.1% 1.66 1
2 4 MIGHTY VALOR 10.3% 9.71 12
3 10 KEEP YOU WARM 8.8% 11.42 3
4 9 DUBLIN STAR 5.3% 19.00 2
5 3 BIG FORTUNE 4.4% 22.58 9
6 11 WAR OF COURAGE 2.7% 37.22 5
7 14 GREEN REIGN 2.3% 44.43 10
8 2 KAI XIN DRAGON 2.0% 51.04 4
9 1 ROYAL AGILITY 1.2% 83.98 14
10 7 LOYAL BABY 0.8% 118.13 7
11 5 LET'S DO IT 0.7% 142.50 6
12 8 PASSING FASHION 0.6% 180.41 13
13 13 EXCEED THE STARS 0.5% 205.16 11
14 6 WINE AND WINE 0.4% 231.33 8
FANTASTIC WAY — wonMIGHTY VALORKEEP YOU WARMDUBLIN STARBIG FORTUNEWAR OF COURAGEGREEN REIGNKAI XIN DRAGONROYAL AGILITYLOYAL BABYLET'S DO ITPASSING FASHIONEXCEED THE STARSWINE AND WINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 18

PLACE

9 20.5

10 18

12 13

QUINELLA

9,12 75.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 59

9,12 32.5

10,12 26

FORECAST

12,9 136

TIERCE

12,9,10 361

TRIO

9,10,12 110

FIRST 4

2,9,10,12 679

QUARTET

12,9,10,2 5,722

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 18

A3

A2

7TH DOUBLE

7/9 463.5

7/12 549.5