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Sha Tin · 2021-02-28

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SIMPLY SPECTACULAR, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C W Chang, won by SH, with COPARTNER AMBITION second and VOYAGE STAR third. The 2.3 favourite BEAUTY CHEERS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SIMPLY SPECTACULAR H 1.09.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C W Chang 12 23.0 SH
2 8 COPARTNER AMBITION TT1 C Y Ho · W Y So 11 8.4 SH
3 14 VOYAGE STAR V/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 3 8.8 SH
4 1 ENCHANTING START H-/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 2 6.3 1/2
5 7 BEAUTY CHEERS J Moreira · J Size 1 2.3 1
6 13 FIRE BALL TT V Borges · C H Yip 10 5.1 1-1/2
7 4 XPONENTIAL CP T Piccone · D J Whyte 14 74.0 2-1/4
8 10 FREE FOAL M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 26.0 2-1/4
9 3 THE ANOMALY M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 37.0 2-1/2
10 12 JUNGLE BLAZE TT1 M F Poon · K W Lui 4 205.0 3-1/4
11 5 JUDY'S STAR B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 13 21.0 3-1/2
12 9 E BROTHER A Badel · K L Man 7 62.0 4-1/2
13 11 GALLANT CAVALIER B1 R Maia · A T Millard 5 176.0 6-1/2
14 6 URBAN DANCER XB/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 6 77.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIMPLY SPECTACULAR2. COPARTNER AMBITION+0.1L3. VOYAGE STAR+0.1L4. ENCHANTING START+0.5L5. BEAUTY CHEERS+1L6. FIRE BALL+1.5L7. XPONENTIAL+2.25L8. FREE FOAL+2.25L9. THE ANOMALY+2.5L10. JUNGLE BLAZE+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY CHEERS (17.0%) finished 5th — the winner SIMPLY SPECTACULAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BEAUTY CHEERS 17.0% 5.87 5
2 1 ENCHANTING START 15.8% 6.32 4
3 2 SIMPLY SPECTACULAR 9.5% 10.49 1
4 13 FIRE BALL 9.3% 10.72 6
5 5 JUDY'S STAR 7.5% 13.41 11
6 3 THE ANOMALY 7.4% 13.48 9
7 10 FREE FOAL 6.7% 14.87 8
8 12 JUNGLE BLAZE 5.5% 18.03 10
9 11 GALLANT CAVALIER 5.5% 18.28 13
10 14 VOYAGE STAR 4.8% 20.92 3
11 9 E BROTHER 4.0% 24.84 12
12 8 COPARTNER AMBITION 2.8% 35.56 2
13 6 URBAN DANCER 2.2% 45.84 14
14 4 XPONENTIAL 1.9% 53.61 7
BEAUTY CHEERSENCHANTING STARTSIMPLY SPECTACULAR — wonFIRE BALLJUDY'S STARTHE ANOMALYFREE FOALJUNGLE BLAZEGALLANT CAVALIERVOYAGE STARE BROTHERCOPARTNER AMBITIONURBAN DANCERXPONENTIAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 232

PLACE

2 59.5

8 24

14 24.5

QUINELLA

2,8 1,058

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 280.5

2,14 235.5

8,14 99.5

FORECAST

2,8 1,926

TIERCE

2,8,14 20,011

TRIO

2,8,14 2,786

FIRST 4

1,2,8,14 4,516

QUARTET

2,8,14,1 138,501

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 48.5

4TH DOUBLE

4/2 1,388.5

4/8 120.5