Sha Tin · 2021-05-12
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-12 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. JADE THEATRE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with KA YING BRILLIANCE second and VALIANT ELEGANCE third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | JADE THEATRE B 1.09.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 2 | 3.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | KA YING BRILLIANCE H-/V-/XB/B2 J Moreira · T P Yung | J Moreira | T P Yung | 4 | 4.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 7.3 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | STAR SUPERIOR K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 9 | 8.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 3 | 43.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | EVER STRONG P C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 12 | 7.9 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | REGENCY GEM B2/TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 5 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | NOBLE MAN B/E/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 10 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | RUN DES RUN B-/TT T Piccone · K W Lui | T Piccone | K W Lui | 6 | 38.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 7 | 10.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | SPLENDID TIMING P1 A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 11 | 28.0 | 11-1/2 |
| — | 9 | THE ABRAXAS Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | REGENCY GEM | 21.8% | 4.59 | 7 |
| 2 | 12 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 18.2% | 5.50 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | VALIANT ELEGANCE | 13.6% | 7.35 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | JADE THEATRE | 11.6% | 8.63 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | NOBLE MAN | 10.7% | 9.30 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY | 6.2% | 16.05 | 10 |
| 7 | 3 | SPLENDID TIMING | 6.2% | 16.18 | 11 |
| 8 | 11 | EVER STRONG | 4.0% | 24.97 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 3.6% | 27.95 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | STAR SUPERIOR | 2.6% | 38.21 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | RUN DES RUN | 1.5% | 66.54 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 37.5
PLACE
4 21
5 15.5
12 16
QUINELLA
5,12 85
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 49.5
4,12 62.5
5,12 29
FORECAST
5,12 115
TIERCE
5,12,4 430
TRIO
4,5,12 139
FIRST 4
4,5,8,12 193
QUARTET
5,12,4,8 2,347
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 37.5
A2 —