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Sha Tin · 2021-05-12

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.37.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOLD COMET Closed strongly B 1.37.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard 1 2.9 9
2 0 OH BRAVO Closed strongly TT A Badel · W Y So 12 66.0 9
3 0 BLOTTING PAPER Led early B A Hamelin · R Gibson 7 84.0 9-1/4
4 0 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 6 7.7 9-3/4
5 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC K C Leung · L Ho 13 28.0 10-1/4
6 0 WINNING VOLATILITY Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 21.0 10-1/2
7 0 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 6.3 10-3/4
8 0 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B Z Purton · W Y So 4 12.0 11-3/4
9 0 FLYING SWORD CP-/B1/TT R Maia · D A Hayes 5 10.0 12-1/4
10 0 MISTER ARM H1/P1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 16.0 12-3/4
11 0 LAND POWER B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 10.0 13
12 0 COOLCELEB B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 2 24.0 13-1/4
13 0 CIGARY B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 9 182.0 17
14 0 NOTHING NEW XB1 C L Chau · C W Chang 14 9.9 21

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-12 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GOLD COMET, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 9, with OH BRAVO second and BLOTTING PAPER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLD COMET—2. OH BRAVO+9L3. BLOTTING PAPER+9.25L4. EL VALIENTE+9.75L5. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+10.25L6. WINNING VOLATILITY+10.5L7. LADY FIRST+10.75L8. HANG'S DECISION+11.75L9. FLYING SWORD+12.25L10. MISTER ARM+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GOLD COMET (22.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOLD COMET 22.5% 4.44 1
2 0 LADY FIRST 14.1% 7.08 7
3 0 LAND POWER 12.4% 8.09 11
4 0 HANG'S DECISION 12.2% 8.23 8
5 0 EL VALIENTE 9.9% 10.12 4
6 0 COOLCELEB 6.9% 14.52 12
7 0 WINNING VOLATILITY 5.4% 18.43 6
8 0 NOTHING NEW 4.2% 23.89 14
9 0 OH BRAVO 2.8% 35.42 2
10 0 FLYING SWORD 2.4% 41.53 9
11 0 BLOTTING PAPER 2.2% 45.58 3
12 0 MISTER ARM 2.1% 47.98 10
13 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 2.1% 48.38 5
14 0 CIGARY 0.9% 112.01 13
GOLD COMET — wonLADY FIRSTLAND POWERHANG'S DECISIONEL VALIENTECOOLCELEBWINNING VOLATILITYNOTHING NEWOH BRAVOFLYING SWORDBLOTTING PAPERMISTER ARMLONDON LUCKYSTARCIGARY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 29.5

PLACE

5 191.5

7 15

14 139.5

QUINELLA

7,14 1,358

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 451

5,14 2,577.5

7,14 459

FORECAST

7,14 1,379

TIERCE

7,14,5 40,648

TRIO

5,7,14 17,516

FIRST 4

5,7,11,14 23,947

QUARTET

7,14,5,11 412,992

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,11,12/F 4,387

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 20

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

5/7 511

5/14 1,490.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,10,12/Any Combination/Any Combination 1,706

← Race 5 Race 7 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive — US$299 All results since 1977 as data