Sha Tin · 2021-05-12
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-12 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FAIRY FLOSS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 3-1/4, with DRAGON COMMANDER second and APOLAR WARRIOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | FAIRY FLOSS Closed strongly CP/H 1.49.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 2.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | DRAGON COMMANDER Closed strongly B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 10 | 8.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | APOLAR WARRIOR Closed strongly V H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 7 | 9.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | SUN SUN FA FA TT C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 12 | 85.0 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | SPEED TO EXCEED Closed strongly XB/CP1 C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 1 | 11.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SKY GEM Closed strongly PC2 A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 9 | 11.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 2 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | AEROSONIC Led early P/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 13 | 37.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | PROUD SKY V M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 5 | 17.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | 8 | 26.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 11 | 13 | YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B2/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 4 | 61.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | SOCKET ELITE TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 11 | 53.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 13 | 3 | HAPPY ICHIBAN B C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 14 | 42.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | KEEP WINNING TT A Badel · C W Chang | A Badel | C W Chang | 6 | 10.0 | 14-1/4 |
| — | 0 | SMILING FACE C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | FAIRY FLOSS | 25.6% | 3.91 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | FORTUNE PATROL | 11.6% | 8.63 | 7 |
| 3 | 1 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 10.4% | 9.65 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | SPEED TO EXCEED | 8.5% | 11.73 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | SKY GEM | 7.7% | 12.91 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | HAPPY ICHIBAN | 6.6% | 15.22 | 13 |
| 7 | 2 | AEROSONIC | 6.4% | 15.74 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | APOLAR WARRIOR | 6.0% | 16.56 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | SOCKET ELITE | 3.9% | 25.90 | 12 |
| 10 | 13 | YOUNG GLORY | 3.7% | 27.19 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | GENERAL DINO | 2.8% | 35.33 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | PROUD SKY | 2.8% | 36.33 | 9 |
| 13 | 14 | KEEP WINNING | 2.3% | 44.24 | 14 |
| 14 | 4 | SUN SUN FA FA | 1.9% | 53.21 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 23
PLACE
1 21.5
6 31
7 13
QUINELLA
1,7 68.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 105.5
1,7 28.5
6,7 47.5
FORECAST
7,1 104
TIERCE
7,1,6 534
TRIO
1,6,7 157
FIRST 4
1,4,6,7 4,809
QUARTET
7,1,6,4 35,580
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
5,9/1 23.5
5,9/7 64.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 18
A2 —