Sha Tin · 2021-05-12

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-12 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CARROLL STREET, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with WINNER METHOD second and RESOLUTE third. The 1.3 favourite WINNER METHOD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.55.36

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	CARROLL STREET XB 0.55.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	9	117 lb	4.7	1
2	1	WINNER METHOD TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	5	132 lb	1.3	1
3	9	RESOLUTE B M F Poon · A T Millard	M F Poon	A T Millard	7	115 lb	22.0	2-1/4
4	3	METRO WARRIOR B K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	4	126 lb	17.0	2-1/4
5	2	PERFECT GLORY C Schofield · C Fownes	C Schofield	C Fownes	2	129 lb	29.0	3-1/2
6	5	UTOPIA LIFE B K C Leung · K L Man	K C Leung	K L Man	1	122 lb	37.0	4
7	8	EIGHT TRIGRAMS B J Moreira · D J Hall	J Moreira	D J Hall	8	118 lb	13.0	5-1/2
8	6	EUROMISSILE XB/CP1/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang	A Hamelin	C W Chang	6	120 lb	85.0	9
9	7	FLYING HIGH T Piccone · W Y So	T Piccone	W Y So	3	120 lb	54.0	9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick WINNER METHOD (58.9%) finished 2nd — the winner CARROLL STREET was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	WINNER METHOD	58.9%	1.70	2	1.3
2	4	CARROLL STREET	18.9%	5.29	1	4.7
3	3	METRO WARRIOR	7.8%	12.80	4	17.0
4	9	RESOLUTE	5.0%	20.14	3	22.0
5	8	EIGHT TRIGRAMS	2.8%	35.44	7	13.0
6	5	UTOPIA LIFE	2.8%	35.56	6	37.0
7	2	PERFECT GLORY	2.5%	40.60	5	29.0
8	7	FLYING HIGH	0.9%	115.70	9	54.0
9	6	EUROMISSILE	0.5%	204.76	8	85.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 47

PLACE

1 11.5

4 12

9 28

QUINELLA

1,4 24

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 14

1,9 36.5

4,9 52

FORECAST

4,1 100

TIERCE

4,1,9 521

TRIO

1,4,9 72

FIRST 4

1,3,4,9 122

QUARTET

4,1,9,3 3,478

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

7/1 10.5

7/4 110.5

3 PICK 1

A2 29

A3 —

A1 —

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