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Sha Tin · 2021-05-12

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MAN STAR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with HARMONY SPIRIT second and GUNNISON third. Victory came as the 4.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 MAN STAR V 1.08.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K H Ting 1 4.9 N
2 8 HARMONY SPIRIT CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 9 10.0 N
3 1 GUNNISON H N Wong · Y S Tsui 5 34.0 1-1/2
4 6 STAR OF YUEN LONG B2 K C Leung · K L Man 11 9.0 1-3/4
5 11 SKY SHOW B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 5.9 2-1/4
6 7 ELON P C Schofield · J Size 8 30.0 4-1/2
7 2 CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 7 8.8 4-3/4
8 12 TRADER CP-/B1/TT1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 6.1 4-3/4
9 4 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT M F Poon · D J Hall 10 43.0 5
10 10 MOERAKI B H T Mo · C W Chang 2 6.2 5
11 9 GOLFMAN STAR P-/PC1 Z Purton · F C Lor 12 13.0 8-3/4
12 3 GOOD VIEW CLARICO K H Chan · C H Yip 6 25.0 10
0 SUNSET WATCH A Badel · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAN STAR2. HARMONY SPIRIT+0.05L3. GUNNISON+1.5L4. STAR OF YUEN LONG+1.75L5. SKY SHOW+2.25L6. ELON+4.5L7. CALIFORNIA CONCORD+4.75L8. TRADER+4.75L9. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+5L10. MOERAKI+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA CONCORD (22.9%) finished 7th — the winner MAN STAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 22.9% 4.37 7
2 5 MAN STAR 12.0% 8.30 1
3 11 SKY SHOW 11.8% 8.48 5
4 9 GOLFMAN STAR 9.8% 10.24 11
5 10 MOERAKI 9.3% 10.71 10
6 12 TRADER 9.0% 11.12 8
7 3 GOOD VIEW CLARICO 8.2% 12.19 12
8 8 HARMONY SPIRIT 7.9% 12.64 2
9 6 STAR OF YUEN LONG 4.5% 22.30 4
10 4 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 2.2% 44.49 9
11 1 GUNNISON 1.4% 73.05 3
12 7 ELON 1.0% 102.98 6
CALIFORNIA CONCORDMAN STAR — wonSKY SHOWGOLFMAN STARMOERAKITRADERGOOD VIEW CLARICOHARMONY SPIRITSTAR OF YUEN LONGQUADRUPLE DOUBLEGUNNISONELON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 49.5

PLACE

1 76

5 19

8 27

QUINELLA

5,8 222

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 235

1,8 415

5,8 80.5

FORECAST

5,8 433

TIERCE

5,8,1 6,231

TRIO

1,5,8 1,570

FIRST 4

1,5,6,8 4,306

QUARTET

5,8,1,6 73,814

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 19

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,9/1,5,8 84,623

7TH DOUBLE

9/5 136

9/8 39.5

SIX UP

1,4/2,12/5,12/7,14/2,9/5,8 10,301

4/2/5/7/9/5 129,423

4 [C L Chau]

TREBLE

7/9/5 286

7/9/8 130