沙田 · 2021-05-12
第 6場
2021-05-12沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由J Moreira策騎、A T Millard訓練的GOLD COMET勝出，贏出9。OH BRAVO獲得亞軍；BLOTTING PAPER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.9倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | GOLD COMET 後段發力 B 1.37.76 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 1 | 2.9 | 9 |
| 2 | 14 | OH BRAVO 後段發力 TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 12 | 66.0 | 9 |
| 3 | 5 | BLOTTING PAPER 早段領放 B A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 7 | 84.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | EL VALIENTE 後段發力 B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 7.7 | 9-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR 後段發力 PC K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 13 | 28.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | WINNING VOLATILITY 後段發力 B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 21.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | LADY FIRST 後段發力 CP/H/XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.3 | 10-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | HANG'S DECISION 後段發力 B Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 4 | 12.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | FLYING SWORD CP-/B1/TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 5 | 10.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 10 | 13 | MISTER ARM H1/P1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 16.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | LAND POWER B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 10 | 10.0 | 13 |
| 12 | 8 | COOLCELEB B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 2 | 24.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 13 | 12 | CIGARY B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 182.0 | 17 |
| 14 | 2 | NOTHING NEW XB1 C L Chau · C W Chang | C L Chau | C W Chang | 14 | 9.9 | 21 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | GOLD COMET | 22.5% | 4.44 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | LADY FIRST | 14.1% | 7.08 | 7 |
| 3 | 6 | LAND POWER | 12.4% | 8.09 | 11 |
| 4 | 1 | HANG'S DECISION | 12.2% | 8.23 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | EL VALIENTE | 9.9% | 10.12 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | COOLCELEB | 6.9% | 14.52 | 12 |
| 7 | 10 | WINNING VOLATILITY | 5.4% | 18.43 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | NOTHING NEW | 4.2% | 23.89 | 14 |
| 9 | 14 | OH BRAVO | 2.8% | 35.42 | 2 |
| 10 | 3 | FLYING SWORD | 2.4% | 41.53 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | BLOTTING PAPER | 2.2% | 45.58 | 3 |
| 12 | 13 | MISTER ARM | 2.1% | 47.98 | 10 |
| 13 | 9 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 2.1% | 48.38 | 5 |
| 14 | 12 | CIGARY | 0.9% | 112.01 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 29.5
PLACE
5 191.5
7 15
14 139.5
QUINELLA
7,14 1,358
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 451
5,14 2,577.5
7,14 459
FORECAST
7,14 1,379
TIERCE
7,14,5 40,648
TRIO
5,7,14 17,516
FIRST 4
5,7,11,14 23,947
QUARTET
7,14,5,11 412,992
全部彩池（另 4 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,11,12/F 4,387
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 20
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
5/7 511
5/14 1,490.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,10,12/Any Combination/Any Combination 1,706