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Sha Tin · 2021-09-26

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. INFINITE POWER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with FALCON TURBO second and INFINITY WIN third. The 4.2 favourite INFINITY WIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 INFINITE POWER CP 1.09.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 6 7.1 SH
2 2 FALCON TURBO B C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 5.1 SH
3 4 INFINITY WIN Z Purton · D A Hayes 10 4.2 1/2
4 7 VIVA HUNTER K C Leung · K L Man 4 4.3 3
5 8 PRANCE DRAGON V/TT A Badel · T P Yung 1 11.0 3-1/2
6 9 BOOM STITCH K Teetan · W Y So 5 8.6 4-1/4
7 1 TURBO POWER J Moreira · K W Lui 7 11.0 4-1/4
8 6 STREET SCREAM H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 9 17.0 4-3/4
9 3 HERCULES B-/XB/TT K H Chan · C H Yip 12 81.0 6-1/4
10 11 NEW ASIA ADVANCE H N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 196.0 9-1/2
11 12 RED BRICK GLORY C Wong · P F Yiu 11 166.0 12-1/4
12 5 JUDY'S STAR B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 2 28.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INFINITE POWER2. FALCON TURBO+0.1L3. INFINITY WIN+0.5L4. VIVA HUNTER+3L5. PRANCE DRAGON+3.5L6. BOOM STITCH+4.25L7. TURBO POWER+4.25L8. STREET SCREAM+4.75L9. HERCULES+6.25L10. NEW ASIA ADVANCE+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick INFINITY WIN (22.5%) finished 3rd — the winner INFINITE POWER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 INFINITY WIN 22.5% 4.45 3
2 1 TURBO POWER 18.9% 5.28 7
3 7 VIVA HUNTER 12.5% 8.02 4
4 6 STREET SCREAM 10.1% 9.95 8
5 2 FALCON TURBO 9.8% 10.16 2
6 8 PRANCE DRAGON 8.1% 12.30 5
7 10 INFINITE POWER 6.2% 16.25 1
8 9 BOOM STITCH 5.0% 19.87 6
9 5 JUDY'S STAR 3.0% 32.82 12
10 3 HERCULES 2.1% 46.74 9
11 11 NEW ASIA ADVANCE 1.0% 95.61 10
12 12 RED BRICK GLORY 0.7% 152.94 11
INFINITY WINTURBO POWERVIVA HUNTERSTREET SCREAMFALCON TURBOPRANCE DRAGONINFINITE POWER — wonBOOM STITCHJUDY'S STARHERCULESNEW ASIA ADVANCERED BRICK GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 71

PLACE

2 19

4 18

10 21.5

QUINELLA

2,10 208

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 41.5

2,10 72

4,10 70

FORECAST

10,2 451

TIERCE

10,2,4 2,209

TRIO

2,4,10 274

FIRST 4

2,4,7,10 261

QUARTET

10,2,4,7 8,718

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 20

A1

A3

4TH DOUBLE

9/2 43.5

9/10 517.5