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Sha Tin · 2021-09-26

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VOYAGE STAR Wire to wire V/TT 1.21.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · T P Yung 8 4.9 SH
2 0 BREEZE OF SPRING Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 2.7 SH
3 0 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 2 9.1 3/4
4 0 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly XB1 H Bentley · P F Yiu 1 10.0 1-3/4
5 0 AWE Closed strongly B-/PC1 A Hamelin · D A Hayes 9 13.0 2
6 0 STRIVE FOR GLORY CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 34.0 4
7 0 GOOD BEAUTY B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 10 19.0 4
8 0 SHINING RED C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 7.4 5-1/2
9 0 LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly H T Mo · D J Hall 11 140.0 5-3/4
10 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 13 16.0 7-3/4
11 0 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 6 22.0 10
12 0 WAH MAY LUCK B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 12 139.0 12
13 0 PASSING FASHION TT K Teetan · C H Yip 7 40.0 23-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-26 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VOYAGE STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with BREEZE OF SPRING second and LIGHT OF WANSHI third. The winner led throughout. The 2.7 favourite BREEZE OF SPRING finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE STAR—2. BREEZE OF SPRING+0.1L3. LIGHT OF WANSHI+0.75L4. NIMBLE NIMBUS+1.75L5. AWE+2L6. STRIVE FOR GLORY+4L7. GOOD BEAUTY+4L8. SHINING RED+5.5L9. LEGION OF MERIT+5.75L10. TURQUOISE ALPHA+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BREEZE OF SPRING (36.6%) finished 2nd — the winner VOYAGE STAR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BREEZE OF SPRING 36.6% 2.73 2
2 0 SHINING RED 18.5% 5.40 8
3 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 9.1% 10.93 10
4 0 LIGHT OF WANSHI 7.7% 12.95 3
5 0 AWE 7.0% 14.23 5
6 0 VOYAGE STAR 6.7% 14.97 1
7 0 NIMBLE NIMBUS 4.0% 24.93 4
8 0 GOOD BEAUTY 2.3% 42.88 7
9 0 LEGION OF MERIT 2.2% 45.48 9
10 0 STRIVE FOR GLORY 2.0% 50.74 6
11 0 GREAT TREASURE 1.8% 54.61 11
12 0 PASSING FASHION 1.2% 85.68 13
13 0 WAH MAY LUCK 0.7% 134.36 12
BREEZE OF SPRINGSHINING REDTURQUOISE ALPHALIGHT OF WANSHIAWEVOYAGE STAR — wonNIMBLE NIMBUSGOOD BEAUTYLEGION OF MERITSTRIVE FOR GLORYGREAT TREASUREPASSING FASHIONWAH MAY LUCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 49.5

PLACE

6 28

10 15

13 15

QUINELLA

10,13 71

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 47

6,13 75.5

10,13 29.5

FORECAST

13,10 174

TIERCE

13,10,6 1,017

TRIO

6,10,13 147

FIRST 4

6,7,10,13 333

QUARTET

13,10,6,7 7,125

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A3 —

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

10/10 85.5

10/13 535

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,9/2,4,10/6,10,13 795,674

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,9/2,4,10/Any Combination 3,038