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Sha Tin · 2021-09-26

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT 1.21.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 10 4.7 N
2 0 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly CP/SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 4.0 N
3 0 BEAUTY LEGACY Closed strongly E/TT B Shinn · J Size 3 15.0 2-3/4
4 0 CRAIG'S STAR Closed strongly B V Borges · K H Ting 11 27.0 3
5 0 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D J Hall 14 6.6 3
6 0 MOERAKI B M Chadwick · C W Chang 7 12.0 4
7 0 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly B1 A Badel · P F Yiu 1 12.0 4-1/2
8 0 PROUD DRAGON Led early L Ferraris · C Fownes 8 6.3 4-1/2
9 0 GOLFMAN STAR CP/H M F Poon · F C Lor 9 25.0 6-3/4
10 0 CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 20.0 8
11 0 ABLE REIGN B H Bentley · D A Hayes 5 130.0 11
12 0 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 13 80.0 13-1/4
13 0 APACHE PASS A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 2 65.0 33-1/2
— 0 HEZA BEAUTY E K Teetan · J Size 6 17.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-26 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MASTER HERO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with UNCLE STEVE second and BEAUTY LEGACY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite UNCLE STEVE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER HERO—2. UNCLE STEVE+0.05L3. BEAUTY LEGACY+2.75L4. CRAIG'S STAR+3L5. MALDIVES+3L6. MOERAKI+4L7. PRECISE EXPRESS+4.5L8. PROUD DRAGON+4.5L9. GOLFMAN STAR+6.75L10. CHANCHENG PRINCE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MALDIVES (23.4%) finished 5th — the winner MASTER HERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MALDIVES 23.4% 4.27 5
2 0 MASTER HERO 15.8% 6.35 1
3 0 UNCLE STEVE 15.0% 6.68 2
4 0 PROUD DRAGON 8.7% 11.50 8
5 0 CRAIG'S STAR 7.7% 12.92 4
6 0 CHANCHENG PRINCE 6.9% 14.42 10
7 0 MOERAKI 6.0% 16.57 6
8 0 BEAUTY LEGACY 4.9% 20.57 3
9 0 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.6% 21.71 7
10 0 GOLFMAN STAR 2.7% 36.59 9
11 0 FANTASTIC SHOW 1.8% 54.24 12
12 0 APACHE PASS 1.2% 80.59 13
13 0 ABLE REIGN 1.2% 83.32 11
MALDIVESMASTER HERO — wonUNCLE STEVEPROUD DRAGONCRAIG'S STARCHANCHENG PRINCEMOERAKIBEAUTY LEGACYPRECISE EXPRESSGOLFMAN STARFANTASTIC SHOWAPACHE PASSABLE REIGN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 47.5

PLACE

2 40.5

5 16.5

14 20

QUINELLA

5,14 101.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 126.5

2,14 105

5,14 38

FORECAST

14,5 154

TIERCE

14,5,2 2,405

TRIO

2,5,14 526

FIRST 4

1,2,5,14 2,855

QUARTET

14,5,2,1 32,522

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 22

A2 —

A3 —

8TH DOUBLE

5/5 12

5/14 71.5