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Sha Tin · 2021-09-26

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-26 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MASTER HERO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with UNCLE STEVE second and BEAUTY LEGACY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite UNCLE STEVE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT 1.21.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 10 4.7 N
2 5 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly CP/SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 4.0 N
3 2 BEAUTY LEGACY Closed strongly E/TT B Shinn · J Size 3 15.0 2-3/4
4 1 CRAIG'S STAR Closed strongly B V Borges · K H Ting 11 27.0 3
5 4 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D J Hall 14 6.6 3
6 10 MOERAKI B M Chadwick · C W Chang 7 12.0 4
7 9 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly B1 A Badel · P F Yiu 1 12.0 4-1/2
8 12 PROUD DRAGON Led early L Ferraris · C Fownes 8 6.3 4-1/2
9 13 GOLFMAN STAR CP/H M F Poon · F C Lor 9 25.0 6-3/4
10 8 CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 20.0 8
11 6 ABLE REIGN B H Bentley · D A Hayes 5 130.0 11
12 11 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 13 80.0 13-1/4
13 7 APACHE PASS A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 2 65.0 33-1/2
3 HEZA BEAUTY E K Teetan · J Size 6 17.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER HERO2. UNCLE STEVE+0.05L3. BEAUTY LEGACY+2.75L4. CRAIG'S STAR+3L5. MALDIVES+3L6. MOERAKI+4L7. PRECISE EXPRESS+4.5L8. PROUD DRAGON+4.5L9. GOLFMAN STAR+6.75L10. CHANCHENG PRINCE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MALDIVES (23.4%) finished 5th — the winner MASTER HERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MALDIVES 23.4% 4.27 5
2 14 MASTER HERO 15.8% 6.35 1
3 5 UNCLE STEVE 15.0% 6.68 2
4 12 PROUD DRAGON 8.7% 11.50 8
5 1 CRAIG'S STAR 7.7% 12.92 4
6 8 CHANCHENG PRINCE 6.9% 14.42 10
7 10 MOERAKI 6.0% 16.57 6
8 2 BEAUTY LEGACY 4.9% 20.57 3
9 9 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.6% 21.71 7
10 13 GOLFMAN STAR 2.7% 36.59 9
11 11 FANTASTIC SHOW 1.8% 54.24 12
12 7 APACHE PASS 1.2% 80.59 13
13 6 ABLE REIGN 1.2% 83.32 11
MALDIVESMASTER HERO — wonUNCLE STEVEPROUD DRAGONCRAIG'S STARCHANCHENG PRINCEMOERAKIBEAUTY LEGACYPRECISE EXPRESSGOLFMAN STARFANTASTIC SHOWAPACHE PASSABLE REIGN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 47.5

PLACE

2 40.5

5 16.5

14 20

QUINELLA

5,14 101.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 126.5

2,14 105

5,14 38

FORECAST

14,5 154

TIERCE

14,5,2 2,405

TRIO

2,5,14 526

FIRST 4

1,2,5,14 2,855

QUARTET

14,5,2,1 32,522

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 22

8TH DOUBLE

5/5 12

5/14 71.5