Sha Tin · 2021-09-26
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-26 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PACKING VICTORY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with FIVE ELEMENTS second and MASTER DELIGHT third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PACKING VICTORY TT 1.08.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 2 | 1.4 | N |
| 2 | 3 | FIVE ELEMENTS J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 5 | 8.3 | N |
| 3 | 2 | MASTER DELIGHT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 1 | 42.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | IMA SINGLE MAN B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 7.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | ROCK YA HEART C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 27.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | PLEASANT ENDEAVOR CP1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 12 | 35.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | WAR OF COURAGE B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 8 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | EMBARKED H K C Leung · C Fownes | K C Leung | C Fownes | 10 | 233.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | BRIGHT KID B/XB H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 4 | 155.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 4 | FANTASY B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 9 | 138.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | GOOD HEALTH CP- M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 11 | 151.0 | 12-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PACKING VICTORY | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT | 9.4% | 10.60 | 7 |
| 3 | 1 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 9.0% | 11.10 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | FIVE ELEMENTS | 7.7% | 12.98 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | MASTER DELIGHT | 4.2% | 24.09 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | WAR OF COURAGE | 4.1% | 24.64 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | ROCK YA HEART | 2.2% | 46.31 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | PLEASANT ENDEAVOR | 2.1% | 47.80 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 | FANTASY | 2.0% | 49.22 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | GOOD HEALTH | 0.6% | 166.80 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | EMBARKED | 0.6% | 169.93 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | BRIGHT KID | 0.6% | 173.07 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 14.5
PLACE
2 78
3 22
5 10.1
QUINELLA
3,5 51.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 301
2,5 86.5
3,5 28
FORECAST
5,3 85
TIERCE
5,3,2 1,342
TRIO
2,3,5 473
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 370
QUARTET
5,3,2,1 5,149
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 12
7TH DOUBLE
7/3 447.5
7/5 642