Sha Tin · 2021-09-26
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-26 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BUDDIES, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with TOURBILLON DIAMOND second and SKY DARCI third. The winner led throughout. The 1.9 favourite SKY DARCI finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BUDDIES Wire to wire H 1.20.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 24.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 1 | 5.5 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | SKY DARCI Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 1.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | DUKE WAI B/H V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 9.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | CHAMPION'S WAY Closed strongly P/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 8 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | SOUTHERN LEGEND TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 4 | 8.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly SR/XB/B2 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 9 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | DECRYPT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 2 | 63.0 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | MIGHTY GIANT B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 5 | 11.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SKY DARCI | 46.6% | 2.15 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | SOUTHERN LEGEND | 17.5% | 5.71 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 10.0% | 9.96 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | CHAMPION'S WAY | 7.3% | 13.77 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 6.1% | 16.31 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | MIGHTY GIANT | 4.4% | 22.74 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | DUKE WAI | 4.2% | 23.72 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | BUDDIES | 2.3% | 43.33 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | DECRYPT | 1.5% | 64.93 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 247
PLACE
3 11
7 56.5
8 17.5
QUINELLA
7,8 510
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 84.5
3,8 27
7,8 143
FORECAST
7,8 1,400
TIERCE
7,8,3 4,809
TRIO
3,7,8 323
FIRST 4
3,5,7,8 570
QUARTET
7,8,3,5 30,515
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,13/3,7,8 16,944
3 PICK 1
A3 45.5
A2 —
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
13/7 1,895.5
13/8 54