Happy Valley · 2021-10-20
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAPPY GATHERING, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with TRADER second and CORDYCEPS ONE third. The 4.4 favourite TRADER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | HAPPY GATHERING B 1.09.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 6.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | TRADER TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 7 | 4.4 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | CORDYCEPS ONE H R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 12 | 131.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 6 | 4.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | HAPPY TIME TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 2 | 8.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | AMIGOS GIGGLE CP- B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 8 | 6.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | TRAVEL DATUK B M L Yeung · R Gibson | M L Yeung | R Gibson | 1 | 61.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | ARES M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 10 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | NEW FUTURE B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 7.7 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | AMAZING NEWS B-/H/XB1/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 9.7 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | VICTORIA GENERAL H/TT1 A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 11 | 31.0 | 7-1/4 |
| — | 10 | EVER JOY V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NEW FUTURE | 16.2% | 6.19 | 9 |
| 2 | 4 | TRADER | 15.0% | 6.68 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | AMIGOS GIGGLE | 14.7% | 6.82 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | AMAZING NEWS | 11.6% | 8.61 | 10 |
| 5 | 12 | HAPPY GATHERING | 10.4% | 9.58 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 10.2% | 9.77 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | HAPPY TIME | 9.6% | 10.40 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | ARES | 6.0% | 16.56 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | VICTORIA GENERAL | 4.0% | 25.08 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | TRAVEL DATUK | 1.3% | 77.85 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | CORDYCEPS ONE | 1.0% | 100.66 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 67.5
PLACE
4 17.5
11 259.5
12 19
QUINELLA
4,12 150
QUINELLA PLACE
4,11 1,113.5
4,12 60
11,12 1,132
FORECAST
12,4 354
TIERCE
12,4,11 22,515
TRIO
4,11,12 6,577
FIRST 4
4,6,11,12 5,396
QUARTET
12,4,11,6 145,905
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/4,10 44.5
2/12 238
3 PICK 1
A1 27.5
A3 —
A2 —