Happy Valley · 2021-10-20
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-20 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ALLOY KING, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/2, with DAY DAY RICH second and GOODMANSHIP third. The 5.7 favourite DAY DAY RICH finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | ALLOY KING CP 1.09.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 3 | 7.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 1 | 5.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | GOODMANSHIP B/TT1 J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 9 | 7.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | SUNNY SMILE TT C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 7 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | MUDITA B2 K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 9.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | WHO LOVES THE ACE TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 11 | 23.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | SHANGHAI POWER B M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 8 | 7.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | GOLDEN MISSION B H Bentley · C W Chang | H Bentley | C W Chang | 10 | 6.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | WHO'S HORSE B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 4 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | FANTASTIC FABIO Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 12 | 11.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | AFTER ME B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 5 | 8.4 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | TIGERLAD B/TT H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 6 | 65.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | ALLOY KING | 17.3% | 5.80 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | GOODMANSHIP | 12.4% | 8.07 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 12.2% | 8.19 | 10 |
| 4 | 6 | DAY DAY RICH | 10.6% | 9.43 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | GOLDEN MISSION | 10.5% | 9.49 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | MUDITA | 8.9% | 11.28 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | WHO'S HORSE | 8.0% | 12.49 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | SHANGHAI POWER | 6.7% | 14.99 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | WHO LOVES THE ACE | 5.8% | 17.21 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | TIGERLAD | 2.9% | 34.52 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | AFTER ME | 2.6% | 37.87 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | SUNNY SMILE | 2.1% | 47.44 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 73.5
PLACE
3 31.5
6 22.5
8 22
QUINELLA
6,8 239.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 101
3,8 124
6,8 81
FORECAST
8,6 542
TIERCE
8,6,3 5,513
TRIO
3,6,8 681
FIRST 4
3,6,8,10 5,641
QUARTET
8,6,3,10 103,361
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 45
A3 —
A2 —