Happy Valley · 2021-10-20
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STORMTROUPER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-3/4, with WHISKEY NEAT second and JOYFUL WIN third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | STORMTROUPER XB 1.09.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 1 | 1.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | WHISKEY NEAT H/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 2 | 7.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | JOYFUL WIN B M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 12 | 9.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 10 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | TOUCH FAITH B- J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 26.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL XB M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 60.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | NOBLE DESIRE SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | REGENCY STAR H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 11 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | GOOD SHOT CP1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 5.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | PRINCE OF BON BON B- C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 5 | 62.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | FLYING GIANT XB1 H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 9 | 235.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | VAST STARLIGHT H/TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 4 | 157.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | STORMTROUPER | 30.2% | 3.31 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | GOOD SHOT | 17.8% | 5.60 | 9 |
| 3 | 9 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 11.8% | 8.51 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | WHISKEY NEAT | 11.6% | 8.60 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | NOBLE DESIRE | 6.3% | 15.90 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | JOYFUL WIN | 5.8% | 17.31 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | PRINCE OF BON BON | 4.8% | 20.88 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | TOUCH FAITH | 4.7% | 21.28 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 2.6% | 38.04 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | REGENCY STAR | 2.3% | 43.17 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | FLYING GIANT | 1.6% | 64.29 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | VAST STARLIGHT | 0.5% | 211.25 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 19
PLACE
1 24.5
5 20.5
7 12
QUINELLA
5,7 72.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 84
1,7 44
5,7 32
FORECAST
7,5 92
TIERCE
7,5,1 768
TRIO
1,5,7 166
FIRST 4
1,5,7,9 436
QUARTET
7,5,1,9 4,400
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,9/1,5,7 4,965
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A3 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
2/5 43
2/7 53
TRIPLE TRIO
1,2,7/2,4,9/1,5,7 182,275
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,7/2,4,9/Any Combination 997