Happy Valley · 2021-11-24
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-24 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WE THE SOUTH, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with BRILLIANT FORTUNE second and SEIZING THE MOMENT third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WE THE SOUTH H/XB 0.56.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 3 | 2.5 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE P-/H C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 5.8 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | SEIZING THE MOMENT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 1 | 2.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | WIND SPEEDER M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 55.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | GINSON TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 9 | 6.8 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 7 | 30.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | MOERAKI B H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 4 | 44.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SPONTANEOUS B/TT1 M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | ASTRO KING CP1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 35.0 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SEIZING THE MOMENT | 33.3% | 3.00 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | WE THE SOUTH | 28.2% | 3.55 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE | 11.1% | 9.01 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | SPONTANEOUS | 6.9% | 14.43 | 8 |
| 5 | 3 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 5.3% | 18.69 | 6 |
| 6 | 9 | MOERAKI | 5.1% | 19.58 | 7 |
| 7 | 6 | ASTRO KING | 4.7% | 21.11 | 9 |
| 8 | 2 | GINSON | 4.1% | 24.26 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | WIND SPEEDER | 1.1% | 87.00 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 25
PLACE
1 12
4 16.5
7 12
QUINELLA
1,4 73.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 28
1,7 17.5
4,7 26
FORECAST
1,4 110
TIERCE
1,4,7 246
TRIO
1,4,7 50
FIRST 4
1,4,7,8 313
QUARTET
1,4,7,8 3,726
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 13.5
A2 —
A3 —