Happy Valley · 2021-11-24
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FLAMING PASSION, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with SPARTAN MISSILE second and JOYFUL GENIUS third. The 2.8 favourite FIRE BALL finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FLAMING PASSION TT 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 5 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | SPARTAN MISSILE L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 2 | 19.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | JOYFUL GENIUS A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 4 | 9.9 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | HERO STAR TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 9.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | FIRE BALL TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 1 | 2.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | SHINY ONE XB H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 8 | 95.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B-/SR2/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 45.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | BALTIC WHISPER TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 9 | 33.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | CALL ME LU XB/TT R Maia · W Y So | R Maia | W Y So | 3 | 28.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | ACA POWER C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 10 | 37.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | KA YING SPIRIT B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 6 | 6.6 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | DASHING GENIUS H1/TT1 M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 7 | 33.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | KA YING SPIRIT | 30.7% | 3.26 | 11 |
| 2 | 4 | FLAMING PASSION | 23.6% | 4.23 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | FIRE BALL | 17.7% | 5.63 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | HERO STAR | 5.1% | 19.49 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | DASHING GENIUS | 4.1% | 24.35 | 12 |
| 6 | 8 | BALTIC WHISPER | 4.0% | 25.20 | 8 |
| 7 | 9 | JOYFUL GENIUS | 3.9% | 25.39 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | SPARTAN MISSILE | 3.6% | 27.40 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | CALL ME LU | 2.6% | 37.81 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | ACA POWER | 1.8% | 56.29 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 1.6% | 64.18 | 7 |
| 12 | 2 | SHINY ONE | 1.2% | 83.65 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 34
PLACE
4 13
9 28
11 48.5
QUINELLA
4,11 280.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 56
4,11 101.5
9,11 204
FORECAST
4,11 604
TIERCE
4,11,9 2,670
TRIO
4,9,11 742
FIRST 4
4,5,9,11 1,220
QUARTET
4,11,9,5 23,298
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 15.5
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
9/4 174
9/11 195.5