Happy Valley · 2021-12-15 · 19:16
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MEGA BONUS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with HERCULES second and MELBOURNE HALL third. The 3.5 favourite MELBOURNE HALL finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | MEGA BONUS XB 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 7 | 6.2 | SH |
| 2 | 6 | HERCULES XB/B2/TT K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 5 | 5.4 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | MELBOURNE HALL H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 3 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | CIRCUIT BOOMING TT1 L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 2 | 4.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 9 | 9.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | NOBLE BOYZ CP1/TT1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 4 | 35.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | SURE WIN WIN V-/B2 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 6 | 55.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 8 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 10 | 41.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | KOKUSHI MUSOU H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 12 | 30.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | NOBODY KNOWS H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 1 | 137.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | BEAUTY AMIGO B/TT K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 11 | 25.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | MEGA BONUS | 20.3% | 4.94 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | MELBOURNE HALL | 18.0% | 5.54 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 14.4% | 6.93 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | HERCULES | 13.9% | 7.22 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 10.1% | 9.86 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | NOBLE BOYZ | 4.5% | 22.10 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 4.3% | 23.08 | 12 |
| 8 | 3 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 4.0% | 25.14 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | SURE WIN WIN | 3.8% | 26.12 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | CIRCUIT BOOMING | 3.7% | 26.94 | 4 |
| 11 | 10 | MASTER ALBERT | 2.2% | 45.01 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | NOBODY KNOWS | 0.7% | 149.12 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 62.5
PLACE
6 19
8 19.5
11 14
QUINELLA
6,8 224
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 71.5
6,11 40.5
8,11 40.5
FORECAST
8,6 369
TIERCE
8,6,11 1,219
TRIO
6,8,11 185
FIRST 4
2,6,8,11 162
QUARTET
8,6,11,2 4,684
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 32.5