Happy Valley · 2021-12-15 · 21:16
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB 1.50.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · A T Millard | C L Chau | A T Millard | 2 | 6.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | WINNING VOLATILITY Closed strongly PC J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 5 | 6.7 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | RED IMPACT Closed strongly A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 3 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | FREE FOAL C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 1 | 4.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 8 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | PASSING FASHION Closed strongly XB1/TT R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 11 | 99.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | PLIKCLONE B- A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 6 | 8.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | METHANE Closed strongly B- L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 7 | 22.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 9 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 12 | 26.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN P M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 4 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | FORTUNE WINNER H/V1/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 10 | 130.0 | 10-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-15 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SACRED IBIS, ridden by C L Chau and trained by A T Millard, won by 1, with WINNING VOLATILITY second and RED IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite RED IMPACT finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FREE FOAL | 19.1% | 5.23 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | WINNING VOLATILITY | 18.9% | 5.29 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | RED IMPACT | 16.5% | 6.08 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | PLIKCLONE | 8.6% | 11.59 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 8.0% | 12.52 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 6.6% | 15.15 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | COPARTNER ERA | 6.0% | 16.76 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | NUNCHUKS | 5.4% | 18.44 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | SACRED IBIS | 4.9% | 20.60 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | METHANE | 4.2% | 23.64 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | PASSING FASHION | 1.1% | 91.02 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | FORTUNE WINNER | 0.7% | 134.09 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 60
PLACE
1 18
5 16.5
8 21.5
QUINELLA
1,8 218.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 49
1,8 72
5,8 53.5
FORECAST
1,8 423
TIERCE
1,8,5 1,881
TRIO
1,5,8 317
FIRST 4
1,5,6,8 190
QUARTET
1,8,5,6 6,588
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 22
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
8/1 408.5
8/8 41.5