Happy Valley · 2021-12-15 · 20:46
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SPECIAL M B/TT 0.56.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 5.5 | HD |
| 2 | 0 | STOLTZ M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 5 | 13.0 | HD |
| 3 | 0 | WIND SPEEDER M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 4 | 31.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | FABULOUS EIGHT B/TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 1 | 3.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | MY ECSTATIC TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 10 | 8.8 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | WINE AND WINE B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 2 | 7.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE H K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 6 | 4.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 7 | 8.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 9 | 51.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | ASTRO KING CP H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 8 | 132.0 | 6-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-15 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SPECIAL M, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by HD, with STOLTZ second and WIND SPEEDER third. The 3.4 favourite FABULOUS EIGHT finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 20.3% | 4.93 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | SPECIAL M | 19.4% | 5.16 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE | 18.4% | 5.42 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | MY ECSTATIC | 12.2% | 8.22 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 11.0% | 9.12 | 8 |
| 6 | 0 | WINE AND WINE | 8.3% | 12.11 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | STOLTZ | 3.9% | 25.39 | 2 |
| 8 | 0 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 3.5% | 28.52 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | WIND SPEEDER | 2.4% | 41.51 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | ASTRO KING | 0.7% | 146.34 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 55.5
PLACE
5 38
8 20
10 61.5
QUINELLA
5,8 334.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 109.5
5,10 351
8,10 256.5
FORECAST
8,5 489
TIERCE
8,5,10 10,572
TRIO
5,8,10 3,355
FIRST 4
5,8,9,10 1,535
QUARTET
8,5,10,9 42,103
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,11,12/5,8,10 448,303
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 23.5
3RD DOUBLE
12/5 995.5
12/8 2,568.5