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Happy Valley · 2021-12-15 · 20:16

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · P O'Sullivan 3 18.0 HD
2 0 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 2 14.0 HD
3 0 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 1.9 1-1/4
4 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN XB M Chadwick · K L Man 7 9.9 1-1/4
5 0 SPEED FAY FAY B C L Chau · T P Yung 12 13.0 1-3/4
6 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly H/XB C Y Ho · D J Hall 4 5.3 1-3/4
7 0 SHINY ONE Closed strongly XB M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 37.0 4
8 0 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 8 19.0 4-3/4
9 0 SHENRON Led early CP1/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 26.0 4-3/4
10 0 SHADOW BREAKER Closed strongly SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 12.0 5-3/4
11 0 UNIVERSAL HERO R Maia · Y S Tsui 11 151.0 6-1/4
12 0 FULL POWER B/XB L Ferraris · R Gibson 1 92.0 6-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA, ridden by V Borges and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by HD, with NEARLY FINE second and VIVA POPCORN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite VIVA POPCORN finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA—2. NEARLY FINE+0.2L3. VIVA POPCORN+1.25L4. MANNA FROM HEAVEN+1.25L5. SPEED FAY FAY+1.75L6. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+1.75L7. SHINY ONE+4L8. FLASH FAMOUS+4.75L9. SHENRON+4.75L10. SHADOW BREAKER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VIVA POPCORN (27.7%) finished 3rd — the winner KUNGFUMASTER PANDA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 VIVA POPCORN 27.7% 3.61 3
2 0 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 19.8% 5.05 6
3 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 9.1% 11.02 4
4 0 SPEED FAY FAY 7.8% 12.90 5
5 0 SHADOW BREAKER 6.9% 14.49 10
6 0 NEARLY FINE 6.2% 16.01 2
7 0 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 4.8% 21.05 1
8 0 FLASH FAMOUS 4.7% 21.44 8
9 0 SHENRON 3.9% 25.35 9
10 0 FULL POWER 3.5% 28.30 12
11 0 SHINY ONE 3.5% 28.86 7
12 0 UNIVERSAL HERO 2.1% 46.53 11
VIVA POPCORNYEE CHEONG WARRIORMANNA FROM HEAVENSPEED FAY FAYSHADOW BREAKERNEARLY FINEKUNGFUMASTER PANDA — wonFLASH FAMOUSSHENRONFULL POWERSHINY ONEUNIVERSAL HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 188

PLACE

1 34.5

11 13

12 50.5

QUINELLA

1,12 1,428

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 44

1,12 321

11,12 76.5

FORECAST

12,1 2,997

TIERCE

12,1,11 10,044

TRIO

1,11,12 651

FIRST 4

1,9,11,12 1,099

QUARTET

12,1,11,9 60,652

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/1 87

8/12 1,919

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 39

A2 —