Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2021-12-15 · 20:16

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA, ridden by V Borges and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by HD, with NEARLY FINE second and VIVA POPCORN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite VIVA POPCORN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.41.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · P O'Sullivan 3 18.0 HD
2 1 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 2 14.0 HD
3 11 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 1.9 1-1/4
4 9 MANNA FROM HEAVEN XB M Chadwick · K L Man 7 9.9 1-1/4
5 2 SPEED FAY FAY B C L Chau · T P Yung 12 13.0 1-3/4
6 6 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly H/XB C Y Ho · D J Hall 4 5.3 1-3/4
7 3 SHINY ONE Closed strongly XB M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 37.0 4
8 8 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 8 19.0 4-3/4
9 10 SHENRON Led early CP1/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 26.0 4-3/4
10 5 SHADOW BREAKER Closed strongly SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 12.0 5-3/4
11 7 UNIVERSAL HERO R Maia · Y S Tsui 11 151.0 6-1/4
12 4 FULL POWER B/XB L Ferraris · R Gibson 1 92.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA2. NEARLY FINE+0.2L3. VIVA POPCORN+1.25L4. MANNA FROM HEAVEN+1.25L5. SPEED FAY FAY+1.75L6. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+1.75L7. SHINY ONE+4L8. FLASH FAMOUS+4.75L9. SHENRON+4.75L10. SHADOW BREAKER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VIVA POPCORN (27.7%) finished 3rd — the winner KUNGFUMASTER PANDA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 VIVA POPCORN 27.7% 3.61 3
2 6 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 19.8% 5.05 6
3 9 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 9.1% 11.02 4
4 2 SPEED FAY FAY 7.8% 12.90 5
5 5 SHADOW BREAKER 6.9% 14.49 10
6 1 NEARLY FINE 6.2% 16.01 2
7 12 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 4.8% 21.05 1
8 8 FLASH FAMOUS 4.7% 21.44 8
9 10 SHENRON 3.9% 25.35 9
10 4 FULL POWER 3.5% 28.30 12
11 3 SHINY ONE 3.5% 28.86 7
12 7 UNIVERSAL HERO 2.1% 46.53 11
VIVA POPCORNYEE CHEONG WARRIORMANNA FROM HEAVENSPEED FAY FAYSHADOW BREAKERNEARLY FINEKUNGFUMASTER PANDA — wonFLASH FAMOUSSHENRONFULL POWERSHINY ONEUNIVERSAL HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 188

PLACE

1 34.5

11 13

12 50.5

QUINELLA

1,12 1,428

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 44

1,12 321

11,12 76.5

FORECAST

12,1 2,997

TIERCE

12,1,11 10,044

TRIO

1,11,12 651

FIRST 4

1,9,11,12 1,099

QUARTET

12,1,11,9 60,652

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/1 87

8/12 1,919

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 39