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Happy Valley · 2021-12-15 · 19:46

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-15 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. JOLLY FOREVER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with GRAND POWER second and SMILING FACE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.18.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT 2.18.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 10 3.7 3/4
2 10 GRAND POWER Closed strongly B- M Chadwick · C W Chang 12 62.0 3/4
3 12 SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 3 38.0 2
4 2 SKY GEM Closed strongly P2 K H Chan · C Fownes 1 10.0 2
5 3 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · C W Chang 6 4.0 2-1/2
6 4 SUCCESS ALLSTARS Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 11 6.4 3-1/2
7 6 EXALTATION Closed strongly V/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 7 8.8 4-1/4
8 7 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly A Badel · Y S Tsui 9 13.0 4-3/4
9 1 TAILOR MADE TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 12.0 6
10 9 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB H T Mo · A T Millard 8 45.0 6-1/2
11 5 GREAT TIMES Led early B M F Poon · D J Hall 4 83.0 10-1/2
12 11 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 10.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOLLY FOREVER2. GRAND POWER+0.75L3. SMILING FACE+2L4. SKY GEM+2L5. AMAZING BOY+2.5L6. SUCCESS ALLSTARS+3.5L7. EXALTATION+4.25L8. FORTUNE TRIPLE+4.75L9. TAILOR MADE+6L10. FORTUNE PATROL+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING BOY (24.1%) finished 5th — the winner JOLLY FOREVER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 AMAZING BOY 24.1% 4.15 5
2 2 SKY GEM 19.5% 5.14 4
3 4 SUCCESS ALLSTARS 12.1% 8.29 6
4 8 JOLLY FOREVER 9.5% 10.51 1
5 7 FORTUNE TRIPLE 7.2% 13.81 8
6 1 TAILOR MADE 6.9% 14.52 9
7 6 EXALTATION 6.1% 16.30 7
8 11 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 4.1% 24.28 12
9 10 GRAND POWER 3.9% 25.37 2
10 9 FORTUNE PATROL 2.8% 35.76 10
11 12 SMILING FACE 2.3% 43.30 3
12 5 GREAT TIMES 1.4% 70.81 11
AMAZING BOYSKY GEMSUCCESS ALLSTARSJOLLY FOREVER — wonFORTUNE TRIPLETAILOR MADEEXALTATIONWEALTHY EMPLOYEEGRAND POWERFORTUNE PATROLSMILING FACEGREAT TIMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 37

PLACE

8 15

10 149

12 84

QUINELLA

8,10 1,409

QUINELLA PLACE

8,10 421

8,12 219.5

10,12 1,311

FORECAST

8,10 2,074

TIERCE

8,10,12 35,761

TRIO

8,10,12 10,816

FIRST 4

2,8,10,12 18,084

QUARTET

8,10,12,2 416,493

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/8 308.5

8/10 517

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 19

A3