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Sha Tin · 2022-05-15 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1600m Course C+3 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.36.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHEERY Closed strongly B1 1.36.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 8.8 1-1/4
2 0 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly Z Purton · T P Yung 5 3.5 1-1/4
3 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT Led early B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 3 6.7 3-1/2
4 0 KUNG FU TEA B L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 13.0 4-1/4
5 0 CASA LEGEND TT H Bentley · C S Shum 2 5.3 4-1/2
6 0 FREE FOAL CP B Shinn · F C Lor 8 5.6 4-1/2
7 0 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · W Y So 4 28.0 5-1/4
8 0 CELESTIAL WARRIOR CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 9.0 5-1/2
9 0 MR ALDAN B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 11.0 19-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-15 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. CHEERY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with DRAGON PRIDE second and BEAUTY SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite DRAGON PRIDE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHEERY—2. DRAGON PRIDE+1.25L3. BEAUTY SPIRIT+3.5L4. KUNG FU TEA+4.25L5. CASA LEGEND+4.5L6. FREE FOAL+4.5L7. BRIGHT KID+5.25L8. CELESTIAL WARRIOR+5.5L9. MR ALDAN+19.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DRAGON PRIDE (31.7%) finished 2nd — the winner CHEERY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DRAGON PRIDE 31.7% 3.16 2
2 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT 13.9% 7.21 3
3 0 FREE FOAL 11.0% 9.09 6
4 0 CASA LEGEND 10.8% 9.27 5
5 0 CHEERY 10.5% 9.48 1
6 0 KUNG FU TEA 10.0% 10.01 4
7 0 CELESTIAL WARRIOR 5.0% 19.94 8
8 0 MR ALDAN 4.4% 22.69 9
9 0 BRIGHT KID 2.7% 36.56 7
DRAGON PRIDEBEAUTY SPIRITFREE FOALCASA LEGENDCHEERY — wonKUNG FU TEACELESTIAL WARRIORMR ALDANBRIGHT KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 88.5

PLACE

2 17

3 27.5

5 16

QUINELLA

3,5 165

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 86

2,5 32.5

3,5 66

FORECAST

3,5 399

TIERCE

3,5,2 1,334

TRIO

2,3,5 184

FIRST 4

2,3,4,5 246

QUARTET

3,5,2,4 7,054

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/3 372

3/5 42.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 27