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Sha Tin · 2022-05-15 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1600m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-15 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. CHEERY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with DRAGON PRIDE second and BEAUTY SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite DRAGON PRIDE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.36.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CHEERY Closed strongly B1 1.36.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 8.8 1-1/4
2 5 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly Z Purton · T P Yung 5 3.5 1-1/4
3 2 BEAUTY SPIRIT Led early B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 3 6.7 3-1/2
4 4 KUNG FU TEA B L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 13.0 4-1/4
5 6 CASA LEGEND TT H Bentley · C S Shum 2 5.3 4-1/2
6 1 FREE FOAL CP B Shinn · F C Lor 8 5.6 4-1/2
7 7 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · W Y So 4 28.0 5-1/4
8 8 CELESTIAL WARRIOR CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 9.0 5-1/2
9 9 MR ALDAN B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 11.0 19-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHEERY2. DRAGON PRIDE+1.25L3. BEAUTY SPIRIT+3.5L4. KUNG FU TEA+4.25L5. CASA LEGEND+4.5L6. FREE FOAL+4.5L7. BRIGHT KID+5.25L8. CELESTIAL WARRIOR+5.5L9. MR ALDAN+19.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DRAGON PRIDE (31.7%) finished 2nd — the winner CHEERY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 DRAGON PRIDE 31.7% 3.16 2
2 2 BEAUTY SPIRIT 13.9% 7.21 3
3 1 FREE FOAL 11.0% 9.09 6
4 6 CASA LEGEND 10.8% 9.27 5
5 3 CHEERY 10.5% 9.48 1
6 4 KUNG FU TEA 10.0% 10.01 4
7 8 CELESTIAL WARRIOR 5.0% 19.94 8
8 9 MR ALDAN 4.4% 22.69 9
9 7 BRIGHT KID 2.7% 36.56 7
DRAGON PRIDEBEAUTY SPIRITFREE FOALCASA LEGENDCHEERY — wonKUNG FU TEACELESTIAL WARRIORMR ALDANBRIGHT KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 88.5

PLACE

2 17

3 27.5

5 16

QUINELLA

3,5 165

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 86

2,5 32.5

3,5 66

FORECAST

3,5 399

TIERCE

3,5,2 1,334

TRIO

2,3,5 184

FIRST 4

2,3,4,5 246

QUARTET

3,5,2,4 7,054

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/3 372

3/5 42.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 27