Sha Tin · 2022-05-15 · 17:13
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-15 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. ESCAPE ROUTE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with KEEFY second and SECRET VISION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SETANTA finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H 1.22.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 12 | 7.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | KEEFY Closed strongly C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 11 | 7.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | SECRET VISION Closed strongly H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | SAUVESTRE TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 9 | 6.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | SETANTA Closed strongly TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 1 | 3.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | THE HULK Closed strongly L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 5 | 23.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | EZRA Closed strongly B A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 10 | 61.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | GOLDEN LINK M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 3 | 7.7 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | SUPER TEN SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 2 | 6.4 | 14-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | MASTER HERO Led early XB/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 8 | 17.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | NOWITZKI TT1 H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 6 | 173.0 | 15-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | SEATTLE CHOICE A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 4 | 37.0 | 29 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SAUVESTRE | 30.0% | 3.33 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | SUPER TEN | 12.3% | 8.15 | 9 |
| 3 | 2 | SETANTA | 10.7% | 9.38 | 5 |
| 4 | 9 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 9.3% | 10.74 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | GOLDEN LINK | 8.2% | 12.26 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | MASTER HERO | 8.1% | 12.27 | 10 |
| 7 | 3 | KEEFY | 8.0% | 12.54 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | THE HULK | 7.6% | 13.18 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | SEATTLE CHOICE | 2.5% | 39.24 | 12 |
| 10 | 11 | EZRA | 1.6% | 61.30 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | SECRET VISION | 1.1% | 87.49 | 3 |
| 12 | 12 | NOWITZKI | 0.5% | 183.91 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 74
PLACE
3 24
9 23.5
10 33
QUINELLA
3,9 294.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 102
3,10 149
9,10 158
FORECAST
9,3 386
TIERCE
9,3,10 5,556
TRIO
3,9,10 1,687
FIRST 4
1,3,9,10 1,827
QUARTET
9,3,10,1 37,171
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 35
A2 —
A3 —
8TH DOUBLE
2/3 178.5
2/9 430