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Sha Tin · 2022-05-15 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. ACE ONE, ridden by R Maia and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with AUGUST MOON second and BRAVE DREAMS third. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ACE ONE B/TT 1.10.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · D J Whyte 1 4.4 1
2 3 AUGUST MOON BO K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 10 7.7 1
3 11 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 4.7 1-1/2
4 5 BEAUTY TYCOON V Borges · J Size 3 5.5 2-1/4
5 2 RIVER VIEWS L Currie · T P Yung 2 16.0 2-1/2
6 9 FIGHTING STAR B/XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip 5 13.0 3-3/4
7 7 EASY LIFE TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 6 140.0 4-1/4
8 4 WOODFIRE BRO TT Z Purton · L Ho 7 6.2 4-1/4
9 12 FORTUNE CARRIER B2/TT2 C Y Ho · C S Shum 9 11.0 5-1/4
10 10 MIRACLES A Hamelin · K L Man 11 159.0 5-1/2
11 8 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY CP1/H1 B Shinn · R Gibson 12 18.0 5-3/4
12 6 BELL OF HAPPINESS B1 C Wong · C W Chang 4 104.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ACE ONE2. AUGUST MOON+1L3. BRAVE DREAMS+1.5L4. BEAUTY TYCOON+2.25L5. RIVER VIEWS+2.5L6. FIGHTING STAR+3.75L7. EASY LIFE+4.25L8. WOODFIRE BRO+4.25L9. FORTUNE CARRIER+5.25L10. MIRACLES+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AUGUST MOON (20.3%) finished 2nd — the winner ACE ONE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 AUGUST MOON 20.3% 4.93 2
2 11 BRAVE DREAMS 15.1% 6.64 3
3 4 WOODFIRE BRO 14.5% 6.90 8
4 8 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY 12.8% 7.79 11
5 9 FIGHTING STAR 9.6% 10.42 6
6 1 ACE ONE 7.2% 13.89 1
7 2 RIVER VIEWS 6.6% 15.21 5
8 5 BEAUTY TYCOON 4.4% 22.98 4
9 12 FORTUNE CARRIER 4.3% 23.29 9
10 6 BELL OF HAPPINESS 3.8% 26.19 12
11 7 EASY LIFE 0.9% 116.58 7
12 10 MIRACLES 0.6% 161.21 10
AUGUST MOONBRAVE DREAMSWOODFIRE BROSUNSHINE LEGENDARYFIGHTING STARACE ONE — wonRIVER VIEWSBEAUTY TYCOONFORTUNE CARRIERBELL OF HAPPINESSEASY LIFEMIRACLES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 44

PLACE

1 19.5

3 26.5

11 16.5

QUINELLA

1,3 182.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 66

1,11 43.5

3,11 64

FORECAST

1,3 570

TIERCE

1,3,11 1,410

TRIO

1,3,11 221

FIRST 4

1,3,5,11 349

QUARTET

1,3,11,5 8,675

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 20.5

5TH DOUBLE

11/1 421

11/3 130

TRIPLE TRIO

1,4,8/5,11,12/1,3,11 2,100,493

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,8/5,11,12/Any Combination 5,346