Sha Tin · 2022-05-15 · 14:01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-15 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. THE ROCK, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with CALIFORNIA TEN second and RUNNING GLORY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite RUNNING GLORY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | THE ROCK Wire to wire B 1.35.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 3 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 2 | CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 7 | 15.0 | N |
| 2 | 6 | RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 2.8 | N |
| 4 | 1 | BELUGA H L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 2 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | BEAUTY FIT PC-/E/B2 Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 4 | 5.3 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | C P BRAVE Closed strongly B-/TT R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 1 | 6.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | CHARITY GRACE B M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 5 | 4.0 | 3-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | RUNNING GLORY | 25.6% | 3.91 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | CHARITY GRACE | 17.7% | 5.64 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | BEAUTY FIT | 16.6% | 6.02 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | THE ROCK | 12.4% | 8.08 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | C P BRAVE | 12.1% | 8.23 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | BELUGA | 8.7% | 11.56 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | CALIFORNIA TEN | 6.9% | 14.44 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 101.5
PLACE
2 33.5
4 23.5
6 12.5
QUINELLA
2,4 355
4,6 68.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 165
2,6 90.5
4,6 50
FORECAST
4,2 441
4,6 180
TIERCE
4,2,6 2,215
4,6,2 1,739
TRIO
2,4,6 714
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 824
QUARTET
4,2,6,1 13,102
4,6,2,1 10,347
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/2 82.5
3/4 567
3/6 33.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 18.5
A3 —