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Sha Tin · 2022-05-15 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD TO YIELDING 1600m Course C+3 7 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 THE ROCK Wire to wire B 1.35.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 3 10.0 N
2 0 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 15.0 N
2 0 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly A Badel · J Size 6 2.8 N
4 0 BELUGA H L Hewitson · D J Hall 2 10.0 1-1/4
5 0 BEAUTY FIT PC-/E/B2 Z Purton · J Size 4 5.3 2
6 0 C P BRAVE Closed strongly B-/TT R Maia · A T Millard 1 6.0 3-1/2
7 0 CHARITY GRACE B M Chadwick · C S Shum 5 4.0 3-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-05-15 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. THE ROCK, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with CALIFORNIA TEN second and RUNNING GLORY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite RUNNING GLORY finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE ROCK—2. CALIFORNIA TEN+0.05L2. RUNNING GLORY+0.05L4. BELUGA+1.25L5. BEAUTY FIT+2L6. C P BRAVE+3.5L7. CHARITY GRACE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RUNNING GLORY (25.6%) finished 2nd — the winner THE ROCK was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RUNNING GLORY 25.6% 3.91 2
2 0 CHARITY GRACE 17.7% 5.64 7
3 0 BEAUTY FIT 16.6% 6.02 5
4 0 THE ROCK 12.4% 8.08 1
5 0 C P BRAVE 12.1% 8.23 6
6 0 BELUGA 8.7% 11.56 4
7 0 CALIFORNIA TEN 6.9% 14.44 2
RUNNING GLORYCHARITY GRACEBEAUTY FITTHE ROCK — wonC P BRAVEBELUGACALIFORNIA TEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 101.5

PLACE

2 33.5

4 23.5

6 12.5

QUINELLA

2,4 355

4,6 68.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 165

2,6 90.5

4,6 50

FORECAST

4,2 441

4,6 180

TIERCE

4,2,6 2,215

4,6,2 1,739

TRIO

2,4,6 714

FIRST 4

1,2,4,6 824

QUARTET

4,2,6,1 13,102

4,6,2,1 10,347

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/2 82.5

3/4 567

3/6 33.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 18.5

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive — US$299 All results since 1977 as data