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Happy Valley · 2022-06-28 · 19:46

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CORDYCEPS ONE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with JADE PHOENIX second and OUR CREED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite OUR CREED finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CORDYCEPS ONE Closed strongly B/H 1.39.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui 5 5.3 1
2 1 JADE PHOENIX CP/TT B Shinn · F C Lor 6 29.0 1
3 7 OUR CREED Led early V Z Purton · K H Ting 1 4.6 1
4 10 AMIGOS GIGGLE Closed strongly A Badel · C Fownes 9 5.5 2
5 3 HAPPY LAND B2/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 3 9.7 2-3/4
6 6 FARSHAD CP H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 15.0 2-3/4
7 4 SWOT TROOPERS WIND B L Currie · D J Hall 4 4.6 4-1/4
8 9 RATTAN KINGDOM Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · R Gibson 11 12.0 5-1/4
9 2 SMOOTHIES B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 8 21.0 5-1/2
10 5 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA B/TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 10 16.0 6-3/4
11 8 OUR CLASS ACT H1/P1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui 7 41.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS ONE2. JADE PHOENIX+1L3. OUR CREED+1L4. AMIGOS GIGGLE+2L5. HAPPY LAND+2.75L6. FARSHAD+2.75L7. SWOT TROOPERS WIND+4.25L8. RATTAN KINGDOM+5.25L9. SMOOTHIES+5.5L10. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick OUR CREED (26.4%) finished 3rd — the winner CORDYCEPS ONE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 OUR CREED 26.4% 3.78 3
2 11 CORDYCEPS ONE 11.9% 8.37 1
3 4 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 10.7% 9.33 7
4 1 JADE PHOENIX 8.1% 12.34 2
5 10 AMIGOS GIGGLE 7.7% 12.94 4
6 2 SMOOTHIES 7.4% 13.59 9
7 3 HAPPY LAND 6.9% 14.41 5
8 5 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 6.9% 14.42 10
9 9 RATTAN KINGDOM 6.0% 16.77 8
10 6 FARSHAD 4.4% 22.88 6
11 8 OUR CLASS ACT 3.5% 28.55 11
OUR CREEDCORDYCEPS ONE — wonSWOT TROOPERS WINDJADE PHOENIXAMIGOS GIGGLESMOOTHIESHAPPY LANDKUNGFUMASTER PANDARATTAN KINGDOMFARSHADOUR CLASS ACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 53.5

PLACE

1 80

7 17.5

11 18

QUINELLA

1,11 848.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 221.5

1,11 243

7,11 47.5

FORECAST

11,1 1,159

TIERCE

11,1,7 6,650

TRIO

1,7,11 998

FIRST 4

1,7,10,11 1,555

QUARTET

11,1,7,10 45,656

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/1 509

7/11 776.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 25

A3