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Happy Valley · 2022-06-28 · 19:46

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CORDYCEPS ONE Closed strongly B/H 1.39.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui 5 5.3 1
2 0 JADE PHOENIX CP/TT B Shinn · F C Lor 6 29.0 1
3 0 OUR CREED Led early V Z Purton · K H Ting 1 4.6 1
4 0 AMIGOS GIGGLE Closed strongly A Badel · C Fownes 9 5.5 2
5 0 HAPPY LAND B2/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 3 9.7 2-3/4
6 0 FARSHAD CP H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 15.0 2-3/4
7 0 SWOT TROOPERS WIND B L Currie · D J Hall 4 4.6 4-1/4
8 0 RATTAN KINGDOM Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · R Gibson 11 12.0 5-1/4
9 0 SMOOTHIES B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 8 21.0 5-1/2
10 0 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA B/TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 10 16.0 6-3/4
11 0 OUR CLASS ACT H1/P1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui 7 41.0 12-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CORDYCEPS ONE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with JADE PHOENIX second and OUR CREED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite OUR CREED finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS ONE—2. JADE PHOENIX+1L3. OUR CREED+1L4. AMIGOS GIGGLE+2L5. HAPPY LAND+2.75L6. FARSHAD+2.75L7. SWOT TROOPERS WIND+4.25L8. RATTAN KINGDOM+5.25L9. SMOOTHIES+5.5L10. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick OUR CREED (26.4%) finished 3rd — the winner CORDYCEPS ONE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 OUR CREED 26.4% 3.78 3
2 0 CORDYCEPS ONE 11.9% 8.37 1
3 0 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 10.7% 9.33 7
4 0 JADE PHOENIX 8.1% 12.34 2
5 0 AMIGOS GIGGLE 7.7% 12.94 4
6 0 SMOOTHIES 7.4% 13.59 9
7 0 HAPPY LAND 6.9% 14.41 5
8 0 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 6.9% 14.42 10
9 0 RATTAN KINGDOM 6.0% 16.77 8
10 0 FARSHAD 4.4% 22.88 6
11 0 OUR CLASS ACT 3.5% 28.55 11
OUR CREEDCORDYCEPS ONE — wonSWOT TROOPERS WINDJADE PHOENIXAMIGOS GIGGLESMOOTHIESHAPPY LANDKUNGFUMASTER PANDARATTAN KINGDOMFARSHADOUR CLASS ACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 53.5

PLACE

1 80

7 17.5

11 18

QUINELLA

1,11 848.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 221.5

1,11 243

7,11 47.5

FORECAST

11,1 1,159

TIERCE

11,1,7 6,650

TRIO

1,7,11 998

FIRST 4

1,7,10,11 1,555

QUARTET

11,1,7,10 45,656

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/1 509

7/11 776.5

3 PICK 1

A1 25

A2 —

A3 —