Happy Valley · 2022-06-28 · 20:16
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KOKUSHI MUSOU, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with HERO STAR second and BINGO BINGO third. The 3.7 favourite HERO STAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KOKUSHI MUSOU H/TT 1.09.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 1 | 5.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 4 | 3.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | BINGO BINGO B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 9.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | WIND SPEEDER H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 2 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | FIRE BALL TT C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 5 | 7.1 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | HAPPY GATHERING K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 8 | 30.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | ISLAND SHINE B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 9 | 14.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | SMILING CITY V L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 24.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | AEROVERSARY B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 23.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | HANG'S CHOICE H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 10 | 94.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | HOLI MOLI B L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 6 | 59.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | FINGERS CROSSED J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 4.1 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FINGERS CROSSED | 28.8% | 3.47 | 12 |
| 2 | 2 | BINGO BINGO | 16.5% | 6.05 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | HERO STAR | 8.7% | 11.44 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | ISLAND SHINE | 7.6% | 13.11 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 7.2% | 13.92 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | AEROVERSARY | 7.0% | 14.29 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | FIRE BALL | 6.1% | 16.52 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | SMILING CITY | 5.8% | 17.18 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | WIND SPEEDER | 3.8% | 26.01 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | HAPPY GATHERING | 3.5% | 28.19 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | HOLI MOLI | 3.5% | 28.34 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | HANG'S CHOICE | 1.3% | 78.57 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 53
PLACE
2 29
4 18.5
10 14
QUINELLA
4,10 88
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 68.5
2,10 61
4,10 33.5
FORECAST
4,10 178
TIERCE
4,10,2 967
TRIO
2,4,10 212
FIRST 4
2,4,7,10 576
QUARTET
4,10,2,7 8,715
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
11/4 205.5
11/10 36.5
3 PICK 1
A1 22
A2 —
A3 —