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Happy Valley · 2022-07-13 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-07-13 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FABULOUS EIGHT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with VAMOS second and YELLOWFIN third. The 3.2 favourite YELLOWFIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 FABULOUS EIGHT B/TT 0.57.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 10 13.0 N
2 8 VAMOS H- Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 5.2 N
3 5 YELLOWFIN J Moreira · K W Lui 1 3.2 3/4
4 1 SERGEANT PEPPER K C Leung · Y S Tsui 8 5.7 2
5 11 WINS ALL TT A Badel · W Y So 9 10.0 2-3/4
6 7 AMAZING INNOVATOR XB1/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 11 25.0 3-1/4
7 10 NEXTMODEL TT H Bentley · T P Yung 2 6.1 3-3/4
8 2 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz 5 32.0 3-3/4
9 12 GLORIFIED FIRE CP1 V Borges · C H Yip 3 42.0 4
10 4 UNITED WE STAND B/TT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 4 12.0 4-1/2
11 9 EASY LIFE CP/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 7 82.0 5-3/4
12 6 HAPPY FOREVER XB/TT M F Poon · K L Man 12 80.0 8-3/4
0 KOWLOON EAST STAR · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FABULOUS EIGHT2. VAMOS+0.05L3. YELLOWFIN+0.75L4. SERGEANT PEPPER+2L5. WINS ALL+2.75L6. AMAZING INNOVATOR+3.25L7. NEXTMODEL+3.75L8. CIRCUIT SEVEN+3.75L9. GLORIFIED FIRE+4L10. UNITED WE STAND+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick YELLOWFIN (21.5%) finished 3rd — the winner FABULOUS EIGHT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 YELLOWFIN 21.5% 4.66 3
2 4 UNITED WE STAND 19.7% 5.08 10
3 8 VAMOS 12.3% 8.11 2
4 1 SERGEANT PEPPER 11.0% 9.09 4
5 3 FABULOUS EIGHT 10.1% 9.86 1
6 10 NEXTMODEL 6.5% 15.44 7
7 11 WINS ALL 5.9% 16.96 5
8 7 AMAZING INNOVATOR 5.1% 19.75 6
9 12 GLORIFIED FIRE 2.5% 40.23 9
10 6 HAPPY FOREVER 2.3% 43.62 12
11 2 CIRCUIT SEVEN 2.3% 43.69 8
12 9 EASY LIFE 0.8% 119.00 11
YELLOWFINUNITED WE STANDVAMOSSERGEANT PEPPERFABULOUS EIGHT — wonNEXTMODELWINS ALLAMAZING INNOVATORGLORIFIED FIREHAPPY FOREVERCIRCUIT SEVENEASY LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 131

PLACE

3 34.5

5 13.5

8 18

QUINELLA

3,8 315

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 82

3,8 100

5,8 35.5

FORECAST

3,8 748

TIERCE

3,8,5 3,523

TRIO

3,5,8 340

FIRST 4

1,3,5,8 262

QUARTET

3,8,5,1 10,880

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

7/3 535.5

7/8 34

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 36

A2