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Happy Valley · 2022-07-13 · 22:54

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-07-13 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PACKING AWARD, ridden by M F Poon and trained by L Ho, won by SH, with BERLIN TANGO second and SAVAQUIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 PACKING AWARD Closed strongly H 1.39.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · L Ho 3 4.8 SH
2 3 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 1 18.0 SH
3 2 SAVAQUIN Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 12 17.0 3/4
4 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS K Teetan · Y S Tsui 9 11.0 2
5 5 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly R Maia · K W Lui 5 28.0 2-1/4
6 11 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 7 10.0 2-3/4
7 9 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 14.0 3-1/4
8 6 GORYTUS Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 6.1 5-1/4
9 10 SIGHT SPIRIT L Currie · J Size 2 7.0 7
10 7 HINCHINLOVE Led early B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 8 50.0 7
11 12 MY ECSTATIC TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 6 6.2 7-1/4
12 4 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT V/TT A Badel · F C Lor 4 8.5 14-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING AWARD2. BERLIN TANGO+0.1L3. SAVAQUIN+0.75L4. TELECOM FIGHTERS+2L5. SUNNY STAR+2.25L6. MALDIVES+2.75L7. PRIME MINISTER+3.25L8. GORYTUS+5.25L9. SIGHT SPIRIT+7L10. HINCHINLOVE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GORYTUS (15.0%) finished 8th — the winner PACKING AWARD was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GORYTUS 15.0% 6.68 8
2 12 MY ECSTATIC 13.3% 7.54 11
3 10 SIGHT SPIRIT 11.3% 8.87 9
4 4 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 11.1% 9.00 12
5 8 PACKING AWARD 9.6% 10.40 1
6 2 SAVAQUIN 9.0% 11.14 3
7 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS 6.5% 15.38 4
8 9 PRIME MINISTER 6.4% 15.66 7
9 3 BERLIN TANGO 6.3% 15.88 2
10 5 SUNNY STAR 5.3% 18.82 5
11 11 MALDIVES 3.8% 26.13 6
12 7 HINCHINLOVE 2.5% 40.45 10
GORYTUSMY ECSTATICSIGHT SPIRITEVERYONE'S DELIGHTPACKING AWARD — wonSAVAQUINTELECOM FIGHTERSPRIME MINISTERBERLIN TANGOSUNNY STARMALDIVESHINCHINLOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 48.5

PLACE

2 50.5

3 53

8 18.5

QUINELLA

3,8 545

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 400

2,8 161.5

3,8 180

FORECAST

8,3 994

TIERCE

8,3,2 14,049

TRIO

2,3,8 3,499

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 5,566

QUARTET

8,3,2,1 110,524

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 28.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,11/2,3,8 62,807

8TH DOUBLE

11/3 344

11/8 687

SIX UP

8,11/8,11,12/1,10/6,8/6,11/3,8 53,116

8/12/10/6/11/8 3,498,460

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

6/11/3 4,949

6/11/8 16,486