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Happy Valley · 2022-07-13 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-07-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. OUR LUCKY GLORY, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-3/4, with EXCELLENT PEERS second and YO BEAUTY third. The 2.9 favourite YO BEAUTY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR 1.09.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 11.0 1-3/4
2 6 EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB J Moreira · F C Lor 2 4.8 1-3/4
3 4 YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 6 2.9 2-1/2
4 1 PING HAI GALAXY A Badel · J Size 10 6.0 2-1/2
5 9 EXUBERANT B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 11 9.7 2-3/4
6 10 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK M Chadwick · W Y So 9 54.0 3-1/4
7 3 WIND N GRASS TT C Y Ho · C W Chang 1 9.0 4-1/4
8 12 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER TT- C Wong · C Fownes 12 94.0 6
9 7 MODEST GENTLEMAN H1/TT M F Poon · L Ho 3 50.0 6-1/2
10 2 MERIDIAN GENIUS L Currie · A T Millard 7 74.0 7-1/2
11 8 STORMTROUPER E/TT R Maia · C H Yip 4 8.6 9
12 5 TRADER CP/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 64.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. OUR LUCKY GLORY2. EXCELLENT PEERS+1.75L3. YO BEAUTY+2.5L4. PING HAI GALAXY+2.5L5. EXUBERANT+2.75L6. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK+3.25L7. WIND N GRASS+4.25L8. YOUNG LIFE FOREVER+6L9. MODEST GENTLEMAN+6.5L10. MERIDIAN GENIUS+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EXCELLENT PEERS (34.8%) finished 2nd — the winner OUR LUCKY GLORY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 EXCELLENT PEERS 34.8% 2.87 2
2 4 YO BEAUTY 15.5% 6.43 3
3 8 STORMTROUPER 13.3% 7.50 11
4 1 PING HAI GALAXY 10.9% 9.18 4
5 11 OUR LUCKY GLORY 7.4% 13.49 1
6 3 WIND N GRASS 4.9% 20.42 7
7 9 EXUBERANT 4.8% 20.92 5
8 10 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 3.2% 31.62 6
9 2 MERIDIAN GENIUS 2.9% 34.24 10
10 5 TRADER 1.1% 91.16 12
11 12 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER 0.7% 137.40 8
12 7 MODEST GENTLEMAN 0.4% 230.27 9
EXCELLENT PEERSYO BEAUTYSTORMTROUPERPING HAI GALAXYOUR LUCKY GLORY — wonWIND N GRASSEXUBERANTGOODLUCK GOODLUCKMERIDIAN GENIUSTRADERYOUNG LIFE FOREVERMODEST GENTLEMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 115.5

PLACE

4 14

6 17.5

11 33

QUINELLA

6,11 274.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 28

4,11 64

6,11 80

FORECAST

11,6 659

TIERCE

11,6,4 1,945

TRIO

4,6,11 216

FIRST 4

1,4,6,11 273

QUARTET

11,6,4,1 8,772

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 37.5

7TH DOUBLE

6/6 197.5

6/11 2,827.5