Happy Valley · 2022-09-14 · 19:16

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-14 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER COMMANDER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with SEE U AGAIN second and SERGEANT PEPPER third. The 2.2 favourite SEE U AGAIN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.64

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	SUPER COMMANDER B/TT 0.56.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P C Ng	L Ferraris	P C Ng	5	123 lb	31.0	N
2	6	SEE U AGAIN Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	4	125 lb	2.2	N
3	1	SERGEANT PEPPER K C Leung · Y S Tsui	K C Leung	Y S Tsui	8	131 lb	7.8	1/2
4	9	PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	7	120 lb	7.3	1/2
5	8	VAMOS L Currie · D A Hayes	L Currie	D A Hayes	1	123 lb	4.8	2-1/2
6	2	CHARMING STEED TT A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	6	130 lb	15.0	4-3/4
7	4	CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz	K H Chan	A S Cruz	9	123 lb	26.0	6-1/4
8	5	MOMENTUM GALAXY B H Bentley · K H Ting	H Bentley	K H Ting	2	128 lb	7.6	6-3/4
9	3	YOUNG LIFE FOREVER S De Sousa · C Fownes	S De Sousa	C Fownes	3	129 lb	34.0	10

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick VAMOS (31.6%) finished 5th — the winner SUPER COMMANDER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	VAMOS	31.6%	3.16	5	4.8
2	6	SEE U AGAIN	27.6%	3.62	2	2.2
3	1	SERGEANT PEPPER	11.3%	8.82	3	7.8
4	9	PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN	7.4%	13.47	4	7.3
5	7	SUPER COMMANDER	5.7%	17.67	1	31.0
6	5	MOMENTUM GALAXY	5.4%	18.46	8	7.6
7	2	CHARMING STEED	5.3%	18.78	6	15.0
8	4	CIRCUIT SEVEN	3.1%	32.04	7	26.0
9	3	YOUNG LIFE FOREVER	2.4%	41.03	9	34.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 317

PLACE

1 25

6 12

7 72

QUINELLA

6,7 344.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 38.5

1,7 269.5

6,7 115

FORECAST

7,6 1,130

TIERCE

7,6,1 7,789

TRIO

1,6,7 643

FIRST 4

1,6,7,9 711

QUARTET

7,6,1,9 29,053

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 62

A2 —

A1 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99