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Happy Valley · 2022-09-14 · 20:16

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A 10 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-14 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VALIANT ELEGANCE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/4, with TRADER second and SUPER AXIOM third. The 3.7 favourite TRADER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT 0.56.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 5.4 2-1/4
2 9 TRADER CP/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 2 3.7 2-1/4
3 5 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 5.4 2-1/2
4 4 FLYING DRAGON C Wong · C H Yip 5 17.0 3-1/2
5 7 AWESOME TREASURE B-/TT- M F Poon · D A Hayes 10 8.3 3-3/4
6 8 HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 12.0 3-3/4
7 3 LUCKY QUALITY V K H Chan · C Fownes 9 28.0 4-1/2
8 6 SUPER VINCE XB1/TT1 Z Purton · F C Lor 3 6.1 5
9 1 ELON E/P A Badel · J Size 7 16.0 7-1/2
10 10 WILD WEST WING V Borges · J Size 4 17.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VALIANT ELEGANCE2. TRADER+2.25L3. SUPER AXIOM+2.5L4. FLYING DRAGON+3.5L5. AWESOME TREASURE+3.75L6. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+3.75L7. LUCKY QUALITY+4.5L8. SUPER VINCE+5L9. ELON+7.5L10. WILD WEST WING+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUPER VINCE (22.7%) finished 8th — the winner VALIANT ELEGANCE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SUPER VINCE 22.7% 4.41 8
2 4 FLYING DRAGON 13.8% 7.25 4
3 2 VALIANT ELEGANCE 13.5% 7.41 1
4 5 SUPER AXIOM 13.3% 7.53 3
5 1 ELON 9.7% 10.29 9
6 8 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 7.3% 13.69 6
7 7 AWESOME TREASURE 6.2% 16.07 5
8 10 WILD WEST WING 5.9% 16.84 10
9 3 LUCKY QUALITY 3.8% 26.05 7
10 9 TRADER 3.8% 26.66 2
SUPER VINCEFLYING DRAGONVALIANT ELEGANCE — wonSUPER AXIOMELONHIGH RISE SOLDIERAWESOME TREASUREWILD WEST WINGLUCKY QUALITYTRADER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 54.5

PLACE

2 19

5 22.5

9 15

QUINELLA

2,9 108

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 57

2,9 41.5

5,9 50

FORECAST

2,9 288

TIERCE

2,9,5 1,108

TRIO

2,5,9 175

FIRST 4

2,4,5,9 462

QUARTET

2,9,5,4 11,398

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/2 247.5

4/9 28

3 PICK 1

A1 22

A3

A2